President Donald Trump is facing renewed scrutiny over the state of the U.S. labor market, as analysts anticipate further revisions to jobs data later this year. The latest adjustments have not only cast doubt on the strength of the economy but also sparked political backlash from the White House.
The data
According to a recent note from Goldman Sachs, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to publish preliminary revision estimates in September that could show a significant downgrade. Specifically, analysts predict a downward revision of 550,000 to 950,000 jobs for the 12-month period ending in March 2025.
Initial reporting
The BLS’ latest monthly report on non-farm payroll employment revealed that only 73,000 jobs were added in July — well below the consensus forecast of 110,000. Furthermore, the agency made downward revisions to May and June figures, subtracting a combined total of 258,000 jobs from previous estimates.
Trump’s response
In the wake of the report, President Trump announced his decision to fire BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer. Trump said he would be firing McEntarfer “immediately” and replacing her with “someone much more competent and qualified.” Without supporting evidence, the president said last month’s figures were “RIGGED in order to make the Republicans, and ME, look bad.” He also accused McEntarfer of messing with the data “for political purposes.”
The aftermath
In response to the revisions, economists are adjusting their forecasts. Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius told CNBC that the recent data increases the chances of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September. “This is a meaningful data release. But it’s one data release. And we’ll want to see what the picture looks like over the next couple of months,” Hatzius said. “But if we get confirmation that things have slowed as much in the labor market then I would say, yeah, we should get back to neutral pretty quickly.” Despite the latest reporting, the White House backed the president, arguing, “A lengthy history of inaccuracies and incompetence by Erika McEntarfer, the former Biden-appointed commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, has completely eroded public trust in the government agency charged with disseminating key data used by policymakers and businesses to make consequential decisions.”
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Author: Isabella Torregiani
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