Fewer Americans are registering as Democrats, while Republicans are gaining voters, according to a new analysis of voter registration records in 30 states. A review by The New York Times and data firm L2 found that Democrats lost 2.1 million registered voters across those states from 2020 to 2024. Republicans, by contrast, gained 2.4 million.
Shift in new registrations
Democrats accounted for 34% of all new voter registrations in 2018, compared with 20% for Republicans. But by 2023 and 2024, Republicans had closed the gap and surpassed Democrats. Over the six-year span, Republicans’ share of new registrations rose nine percentage points, while Democrats’ dropped eight points.
The data also shows a growing number of voters registering as independents — a trend largely cutting into Democratic totals, according to the Times analysis.
While the trend does infer more Republican votes, registration doesn’t automatically mean it. President Donald Trump’s 2020 election bid saw significant numbers of “undervoting” in places like Maricopa County, Arizona, that resulted in other statewide Republican candidates getting more votes than he did.
Battleground states
The registration shifts were particularly significant in battleground states that proved decisive in the 2024 presidential election, when President Donald Trump carried all swing states and won the popular vote.
In North Carolina, Republicans erased about 95% of Democrats’ registration advantage from 2020. Democrats went from holding a roughly 517,000 voter edge to just 53,000.
In Pennsylvania, 314,000 Democrats switched to the Republican Party since 2020, nearly double the 161,000 Republicans who switched to Democrats.
Leadership questions
The drop in Democratic registrations comes as the party looks toward 2028. Polls show no clear frontrunner, though former Vice President Kamala Harris continues to lead the field. Harris recently declined to run for California governor, fueling speculation about a White House bid.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom has also gained traction. A new poll this week even found California voters prefer Newsom over Harris for president.
Meanwhile, Democrats in Congress face historically low approval ratings, and the party is facing financial pressures. Politico reports the Democratic National Committee has $15 million in cash, compared with $80 million for the Republican National Committee. Those two committees are responsible for a significant sum of political spending for their respective party’s candidates but do not factor in political action committee, or PAC, spending.
Despite the losses, Democrats still outnumber Republicans in overall voter registration nationwide. But the picture is complicated. Some large-population, Democratic-leaning states such as California register voters by party, while Republican-leaning states including Texas do not.
Not all states have updated their voter registration data since the 2024 election, meaning the current 2025 numbers remain unclear.
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Author: Ally Heath
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