New poll shows Spanberger ahead, but Earle-Sears closes gap

Democrat Abigail Spanberger (left) and Republican Winsome Earle-Sears are competing in Virginia’s 2025 governor’s race. A new Roanoke College Poll shows Spanberger leading by 7 points. (Photos by Parker Michels-Boyce and Mechelle Hankerson for the Virginia Mercury)

Democrat Abigail Spanberger holds a 7-point lead over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears in the race for Virginia governor, according to a new Roanoke College Poll that shows the contest tightening since the spring.

The survey, released by the college’s Institute for Policy and Opinion Research Tuesday morning, found Spanberger supported by 46% of likely voters compared with 39% for Earle-Sears. Fourteen percent remain undecided, and 1% said they would back someone else. The numbers mark a closer race than in May, when Roanoke’s poll showed Spanberger ahead 43%-26%.

“Many Republicans seem to have ‘come home’ to Earle-Sears since the May poll, but Spanberger’s voters are slightly more enthusiastic about voting and more certain of their vote,” said Harry Wilson, interim director for the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College.

The poll of 702 Virginia residents was conducted between Aug. 11 and Aug. 15 and has a margin of error of 4.30% among all respondents, or 4.39% among likely voters. Most registered voters reported being very likely (83%) or somewhat likely (12%) to cast a ballot in November.

The survey also tested the races for lieutenant governor and attorney general. 

Democrat Ghazala Hashmi, a state senator from Richmond, held a narrow lead over Republican John Reid, 38% to 35%, while Democrat Jay Jones edged Republican incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares, 41% to 38%. 

“The races for lieutenant governor and attorney general are both within the poll’s margin of error, suggesting the election is far from over,” Wilson said. He noted that the poll was weighted to reflect the 2021 Virginia exit poll, “which was a good year for Republicans.”

As has been true for many years now, Republicans and Democrats appear to be living on different planets in terms of how they view politics, elected officials, and candidates.

– Harry Wilson, interim director for the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research, Roanoke College

Three out of four likely voters (76%) said they are very certain of their choice for governor, and 21% are somewhat certain. Half of likely voters described themselves as very enthusiastic about casting a ballot, while 34% were somewhat enthusiastic.

Inflation topped the list of campaign concerns, with 54% of likely voters naming it the most important issue. Crime followed at 11%, abortion at 7%, jobs at 6%, and gun control at 4%.

The poll showed a mixed picture of how Virginians view their leaders. Sixty percent of respondents said the country is on the wrong track, but 52% said the commonwealth is headed in the right direction — both more positive than Roanoke’s May survey.

President Donald Trump’s job approval rating improved to 41%, while Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s approval climbed to 50%, closer to his average throughout his term. Youngkin’s favorability stood at 50% favorable and 42% unfavorable, while Trump’s favorability rose by eight points but remained underwater at 41% favorable and 57% unfavorable.

Spanberger registered a 44% favorable and 38% unfavorable rating, slightly better than in May. Earle-Sears’s numbers also ticked up to 36% favorable and 43% unfavorable, with about 1 in 5 Virginians offering no opinion of either candidate.

The poll also asked Virginians about Trump’s performance on specific issues. His approval stood at 43% on the economy, 42% on foreign policy, and 43% on immigration — all close to his overall approval rating. 

A plurality of likely voters (45%) said Trump has done worse than they expected in his second term, while 28% said he exceeded expectations and 27% said he performed as expected.

Respondents favored Democrats on health care, education, Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, and the environment. Republicans held the edge on immigration, the national debt and deficit, and, to a smaller extent, inflation and taxes.

“With regard to President Trump, respondents appear to steadfastly like or dislike him, regardless of the issue,” Wilson said. 

“They differentiate, however, between the parties when it comes to handling specific issues. As has been true for many years now, Republicans and Democrats appear to be living on different planets in terms of how they view politics, elected officials, and candidates.”