Study: Raleigh, Charlotte strong contenders for MLB team

What started as a search for a new home for the Tampa Bay Rays has now put North Carolina on the map as a potential new home for an MLB team. A new study from North Carolina State University analyzes the economic impact of an MLB team in both Raleigh and Charlotte as compared to other cities in the running. 

The Background

Following sustained damage from Hurricanes Helene and Milton, the Tampa Bay Rays were looking to relocate while the stadium underwent extensive repairs and construction. This brought Raleigh, Charlotte, Nashville (Tennessee), and several other cities into the running as potential new homes. 

In December, Lou Pascucci, a leader of MLB Raleigh, told Raleigh Magazine: “No market can check all of those boxes at the moment.” But if the deals fall through in Tampa, he said, there are only a handful of markets that could land the Rays, and “It will be worth keeping an eye on Nashville, Orlando and Raleigh.” 

According to Forbes, the Tampa Bay Rays’ pending sale to Jacksonville developer Patrick Zalupski for $1.7 billion, expected to close in September, will likely keep the team in the state. The deal must be approved by three-fourths of the incumbent owners and could be approved as early as September. 

Nonetheless, Raleigh, Charlotte, and Nashville are still viable candidates for becoming the future home of an MLB team in general. 

The ConTenDers

A new study by Dr. Michael Walden, an NC State economist and professor, compared Raleigh and Charlotte to eight other cities that have also been mentioned as potential locations for an MLB team — Mexico City, Montreal, Nashville, Orlando, Portland, San Antonio, San Jose, and Salt Lake City. The analysis analyzed these cities across several feasibility factors, including regional population, projected future population growth, worker earnings, media market size, and distance from an existing MLB team. 

The study examines the economic impact of an MLB team and the feasibility of both cities (Charlotte and Raleigh) as MLB team home cities. 

One of the other primary contenders for an MLB team is Nashville. During a recent visit to Covenant Park Health for a Knoxville Smokies game, Gov. Bill Lee of Tennessee advocated for an MLB team in TN.

“We need an MLB team in Tennessee, and I’m really hopeful that’s coming,” said Lee. “This is the future, and this is a very exciting development right here in this town. It’s a part of what’s to come in this state.”

The Study

According to the US Census, the Raleigh–Durham–Chapel Hill Combined Statistical Area (RDU-CSA) ranks as the 31st largest CSA by population out of 181 in the nation, according to the study. Between 2020 and 2024, it was the 8th fastest-growing CSA. Its population surpasses two CSAs that currently have Major League Baseball teams.

Comparatively, according to the study, the Charlotte–Concord CSA ranks 19th in population and was the 11th fastest-growing CSA during the same period. It is also larger than five CSAs that already host an MLB team.

“Like Raleigh and Charlotte, Nashville has been an up-and-coming city in the 21st century,” said the study. “Nashville already has NFL and NHL teams, so the city has been tested at the major league level. However, resistance may come from MLB owners in Cincinnati, St. Louis, and Atlanta, who consider some of their fan base to be in Tennessee. Still, the city has that ‘music city’ image.”

The projected population rankings for 2050 show a similar pattern to current standings. However, when looking at the forecasted percentage change from 2024 to 2050, according to the study, Raleigh stands out — ranking second with an anticipated 45.8% increase, surpassed only by San Antonio’s impressive 60.7% growth rate. Charlotte comes in sixth, and both cities are expected to expand at a pace far exceeding that of their Southern rival, Nashville. 

Stadium location is a critical factor in choosing an MLB city. Raleigh has at least two possible locations. One is south of downtown Raleigh in an area discussed for developing a potential second downtown location, referred to as “Downtown South,” bordered by I-440, according to Walden. A benefit of the location would be interstate access in the south and four-lane road access in the north. The second location is in Raleigh’s sports and entertainment district, which sits on 80 acres and includes the Lenovo Center. I-40 and four-lane roads border the location. One key factor at this location is whether there is sufficient space.

If neither of these locations work, other options could be considered, as the City of Oaks is a growing metropolis. Locations could also be considered between Raleigh and Durham along I-40 or NC-70. While the Durham Bulls Athletic Park is in the Triangle region, it only seats 10,000 and is unlikely to be converted into an MLB stadium. 

Charlotte has trailed Raleigh in conversations about hosting an MLB stadium. The city is currently home to the Charlotte Knights, a minor league team that plays at Truist Field. Like Durham’s DBAP, Truist Field — not to be confused with the Atlanta Braves’ Truist Park — seats just over 10,000 spectators and lacks the facilities required for a major league franchise. Renovating the stadium would likely cost several hundred million dollars, potentially nearing $1 billion. Past proposals for constructing a new, MLB-ready stadium in Charlotte have faced opposition, primarily due to concerns over the use of public funds.

Economic Impact

An MLB stadium would cost between $1 and $2 billion. In recent decades, state and local governments have footed the bill, expecting funds to be recovered from economic growth and additional spending attracted to the city as the home of an MLB stadium. There is also precedent for local investors to partially or fully fund the cost. 

Typically, teams are owned by a single individual or family or a group of investors, with the exception of the Atlanta Braves, which have been owned by Atlanta Braves Holdings Inc., a publicly traded company, since 2023. 

In a recent column by John Locke Foundation board member John Hood, he said decades of academic research show the public funding of ballparks, stadiums, and arenas, do not bring the economic benefits promised. Hood says state and local governments do not derive sufficient return on investment (ROI) in job creation, economic gains, etc., to justify the significant payout. Money spent on tickets, concessions, and advertised products would have been spent on other goods or services in the market, he says. And taxpayers would get a better ROI if the money were invested in public services such as public safety, education, or infrastructure.

Economic projects have three effects: direct, indirect, and induced. According to Walden, the estimated cost of this report’s analysis is $1.75 billion. Direct impact is at the project site. Construction activities include design, materials, and labor. Only activities generated from the project’s host area are included in the calculations. Impact is measured by private spending, employment, payroll, and public revenue. Indirect impact is the economic impact on local suppliers to the project. The induced effect reflects the additional private spending, job creation, and public revenue generated when the project’s extra labor income is spent at local retailers and businesses. 

According to the study, $700 million of the $1.75 billion would be invested in local companies in the region, with the result being the same for Raleigh and Charlotte. Both regions would create 5,500 local jobs during construction, with over $400 million in payroll. The total value of sales of products and services related to construction would be more than $1.1 million for both regions. 

The annual seasonal impact on Wake and Mecklenburg counties from stadium spending, local broadcasting, and advertising revenues generates 2,000–2,500 additional jobs, nearly $120 million in annual labor income, and over $300 million in total economic output, according to Walden’s study. Cities in each county receive more than $2 million annually, counties collect over $3 million, state tax revenues increase by $7 million, and the federal government gains more than $20 million each year.

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