An Offer He Can’t Refuse

Guest Post by Jim Kunstler

“This is not our war. The US is not in a war. Ukraine is in a war. . .” — Sec’y of State Marco Rubio

Volodymyr Zelenskyy is dropping in at the White House today so that Mr. Trump can read him the riot act. It’s that simple. Somewhere to or from Alaska, Mr. Trump concluded that a ceasefire would not work, for the excellent reason that seven previous ceasefires in Ukraine failed, and only reinforced distrust and disappointment between the warring parties. Instead, the goal is a peace settlement, an end to the war.

The USA and Russia cannot make peace in Ukraine because the war is between Ukraine and Russia. The USA can only mediate and propose terms. Ukraine needs help formulating terms that are not preposterous. Russia’s terms have been clear and precise for years, most particularly: no NATO for Ukraine. What part of that is hard to understand? The EU wants missile bases on Russia’s border. It wants to draw Ukraine into its sphere of influence. Ukraine has been in Russia’s sphere of influence since. . . forever.

The US helped start this conflict in 2014, when Mr. Obama was in charge. It was always a cynical operation, in concert with the cynics of the EU. To put it as plainly as possible, Mr. Trump has called it off, recognizing the foolish futility of the scheme. But the EU players persist maniacally, even though they don’t have the money or the armaments to keep it up, and are otherwise jointly committing slow suicide of their own societies.

Anyway, Ukraine is exhausted. Ukraine has lost. Sheer intransigence could keep it going a while longer, but then Russia will sweep west with more pointless bloodshed. The argument is over. Territorial realities must be faced. Agreements must be made.

For the moment, Mr. Zelenskyy is the one who must be brought to agreement. His position as leader of Ukraine is, shall we say, squishy. His term as elected president of Ukraine ended in May 2024, and he only continues to occupy his position under martial law, self-declared. The Russians recognize his leadership as a contingency, because there is nobody else just now. Mr. Trump will be discussing Mr. Zelenskyy’s fate with him today in the White House. (It’s a little like a scene from an Ingmar Bergman movie, don’t you agree?)

There are many ways for this to go. Mr. Z can simply refuse a peace settlement, politely or otherwise. (War continues for no good reason.) He made noises to that effect on Sunday. Or, he can pretend to go along and then flip to some opposite stance, as he has done before. Mr. Z remains an actor of the prima donna variety. He can pretend to parlay in Washington, and then direct his return flight to some country other than Ukraine and seek asylum there, leaving his position vacant and inviting chaos in Kiev. Or. . . he can just play it straight and face the territorial realities.

Namely, that 1) Russia occupies most of the eastern frontier provinces at issue and intends to keep them, since they are inhabited by speakers of Russian who, remember, Mr. Z outlawed some years ago, and who were subject to relentless artillery and missile attacks prior to February, 2022, which prompted Russia’s Special Military Operation. . . that 2) Crimea belongs to Russia. . . that 3) Ukraine will not join NATO. . . that 4) Ukraine will hold new elections ASAP. . . and that 5) Ukraine will substantially disarm. . . . Surely, I left some lesser details out, but that’s most of the meat on the table.

Mr. Z is probably aware that he holds zip in the way of leverage. He is probably thinking (as is everyone else paying attention to this psychodrama) that he will be extremely lucky to stay alive in the aftermath of this fiasco, whatever shadowy corner of the world he might flee to, or how many billions of purloined US dollars he’s managed to stash in the usual places that permit cash-stashing. Staying in Ukraine must be out of the question, considering the damage he’s done to his own people, and the animus it has generated. Who knows, maybe Mr. Trump has reserved a nice little villa for Mr. Z in West Palm, where the president can keep tabs on him? He could learn golf and open a dinner theater.

Meanwhile, the three big bears of NATO stew in impotence and delusion. They are all short timers, by the way: Starmer, Macron, Merz. Their collective polling is sunk in the 25-percent range — and it is common knowledge that 25-percent of any population is abidingly retarded, unfit to comprehend anything. EU Commission Girl-boss Ursula von der Leyen will travel to Washington today with those very three bears in-tow to provide moral support for Mr. Z. (That is, to try to hector Donald Trump against facilitating any settlement of a war they would prefer to keep going for no earthly good reason.) Perhaps Mr. Trump will ask the Eurolanders to wait in the nearby Roosevelt Room while he confabs one-to-one with Mr. Z and makes various offers that Mr. Z can’t refuse. Then, they can all convene together in the Oval for coffee and donuts and review the results of that confab.

If ever a situation for the mass humiliation of European heads-of-state had been conceived previously, this will be the topper played out on CNN in real time. You have to wonder if any of them will survive another month in office after that psychological beat-down. And then let’s stand by to see whether Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s airplane flies back to Kiev or takes an unexpected detour to, say, Abu Dhabi.