Update(1918ET): It appears that the White House is ready to push for Europe’s consensus – at least at the moment (or as a starting negotiating tactic) – which is to provide non-NATO “article 5 style security guarantees” for a post-peace settlement Ukraine. The only problem is that of course it would be NATO countries themselves enforcing such a rule, which will be seen as a non-starter for the Kremlin. According to the latest from Trump’s top envoy:
Special envoy Steve Witkoff says the White House extracted critical wins from its Friday summit with Vladimir Putin in Alaska, even as President Donald Trump failed to walk away with the ceasefire he loudly advocated for.
Security guarantees offering Ukraine “Article 5-like protections” are the real prize, Witkoff told CNN’s Jake Tapper on Sunday. They’re “game-changing,” he said.
But his wording is perhaps an acknowledgement that even the US adminstration knows it’s mearly a goal and unlikely to be the realistic outcome.
He explained Sunday in the aftermath of the Alaska summit, “We didn’t think that we were anywhere close to agreeing to Article Five protection from the United States in legislative enshrinement within the Russian Federation, not to go after any other territory when the peace deal is codified.”
Witkoff contineud on CNN’s State of the Union, “We got to an agreement that the United States and other European nations could effectively offer Article 5-like language to cover a security guarantee.”
But whether the Kremlin actually sees it this way is another quesiton entirely. Naturally the Trump adminsitration is going to start from its own ‘maximalist’ position – but at least the sides are talking and are engaged. If Moscow agrees, it will certainly seek nothing less than significant territorial concessions and political recognization of at least some of the Donbass. Still, based also on Rubio’s latest media comments, the hawks in the Western alliance are continuing to run the show:
“Territories will have to be discussed, it’s just a fact,” says the Secretary of State.
Rubio says “there’s no conditions that can be imposed on Ukraine” to achieve a settlement to the war, and *Russia* may have to give up territory. Hasn’t the media been screaming that Trump is shamefully scheming to force Ukraine to surrender? Rubio suggests the exact opposite pic.twitter.com/OqaPSTrdxL
— Michael Tracey (@mtracey) August 17, 2025
And more, with the expected mixed messaging…
The US and Russia have agreed on security guarantees for Ukraine, but the next steps depend on Kyiv, Trump’s envoy Witkoff said. He added that territorial issues will be discussed with Zelensky on Monday, and that Moscow has made concessions on five Ukrainian regions. pic.twitter.com/IjW2enmd6G
— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) August 17, 2025
What would this look like on the ground in Eastern Europe? Putin has repeatedly warned that Russia will never accept NATO country troops on the ground in Ukraine, so certainly the provervbial devil will be in the details, and there’s yet a long way to go for the negotiating sides. Much might also depend on the temperature in the room of the Oval Office on Monday, when Trump meets leading European leaders and Zelensky in the Oval.
* * *
Ahead of the planned Monday meeting between President Trump and Ukraine’s Zelensky in the Oval Office, which will also have the attendance and participation of a growing list of European and NATO leaders, there’s increasing talk of seeking American-supported “Article 5-style” security guarantees for Ukraine as part of any broader peace deal with Russia.
According to CNN, citing a senior European official, the proposed plan wouldn’t involve NATO directly – and would effectively remove the question of membership in the military alliance – but would aim to offer Ukraine protections similar to NATO’s collective defense clause.
The specifics of the proposal remain undisclosed and unclear, and there’s also the practical reality and major hurdle of just how such ‘guarantees’ would be enforced.
The Kremlin would likely balk at such a condition, given Russian leadership has said it would never allow any Western troop deployment or NATO-style force in Ukraine.
There has actually for years throughout the grinding war been talk among European capitals of the idea of deploying a “reassurance force” in Ukraine.
One thing that all the Western allies agree on at this early stage is that the initiative would never get off the ground without the United States officially backing and supporting it. And yet if the European leaders going to the White House lobby hard for this, it’s almost certain this would break the negotiating process with Russia.
For Moscow, assurance of permanent Ukrainian neutrality remains a top priority, and so talk of an Article-5 style system which would ‘protect’ Ukraine in the instance of future Russian attacks is likely to a complete non-starter as an option.
But it’s especially the hawks which are pushing this, and likely Moscow is going to see it as simply NATO placing its security blanket over Kiev under a different guise, or just under the cover of differing semantics.
On Sunday, more and more European leaders have confirmed they will be joining Ukrainian President Zelensky on his trip to the White House on Monday.
According to a BBC list, the below top officials have confirmed they will be attending:
- UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer
- Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni
- German Chancellor Friedrich Merz
- Finnish President Alexander Stubb
- French President Emmanuel Macron
- Nato Secretary-General Mark Rutte
- European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen
This comes after most leaders on this list have strongly complained that Europe and even Ukraine have been left behind, and cut out of the negotiating process. They back Zelensky who says all decisions taken without direct Ukrainian participation are ‘stillborn’ on arrival.
President Trump’s hope is that this swiftly moving process of talks which started with Putin in Alaska on Friday will lead to a final, and permanent peace settlement to end the war. But much of the entire Western establishment – whether government officials or the mainstream press – seems to want this process to fail…
The bourgeois press thinks the real problem with Putin is that he just needs a good therapist pic.twitter.com/T56qpm3Cnk
— Mark Ames (@MarkAmesExiled) August 17, 2025
Trump said on social media on Saturday, “President Zelenskyy will be coming to D.C., the Oval Office, on Monday afternoon. If all works out, we will then schedule a meeting with President Putin. Potentially, millions of people’s lives will be saved. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
Tyler Durden
Sun, 08/17/2025 – 19:19
Click this link for the original source of this article.
Author: Tyler Durden
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