Vlad, Get Serious

Trump and Putin will meet in a few hours in Alaska to discuss the Ukraine war. The only reason this meeting is even taking place is because of the extraordinary pressure Trump has put on Putin in recent weeks.

Putin thought he could slow-walk Donald Trump while his canon-fodder soldiers slogged their way deeper in Ukraine’s Donbas province. He had been hoping he could present “facts on the ground” at ceasefire negotiations that would be impossible to walk back.

Because of Trump’s pressure tactics over the past two weeks, that’s not going to happen. As I wrote last week, the threat of cutting off Russia’s oil export market by hitting its customers with 50% tariffs finally convinced Putin to come to the table.

So what will an eventual ceasefire agreement look like?

Russia keeps Crimea, which Putin seized in a virtually bloodless operation in 2014 under Obama.

Crimea had been a part of Russia from the late 18th century until 1954, when Khrushchev – who was Ukrainian – forced its transfer to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic, which no longer exists.

Putin organized a referendum on the Russian takeover in 2014 that was widely criticized in the West after the results showed Russian sovereignty was wildly popular.

While no one should trust an election run by Putin, election observers – including a personal friend of mine – sent by the International Republican Institute reported no signs of coercion during the election.

Next, Russia gets to keep most of the territory it currently occupies inside the Donbas.

The Europeans are pushing for an Israeli-style “occupation” model, whereby the territories would remain under Ukrainian sovereignty but Russia would control security and the economy. That’s a sublime irony in itself, as the Euros never cease to slam Israel for its “occupation” of the West Bank and Gaza.

Third, Ukraine will not be a candidate for NATO membership.

Despite what you may hear in the media, few NATO leaders except for former president Joe Biden ever wanted Ukraine inside NATO. Imagine having to apply the mutual defense clause of Article 5 and deploy NATO troops to the Donbas? Really?

None of this may emerge from the actual talks today. Trump told reporters as he was boarding Air Force One for Alaska that he was “not here to negotiate for Ukraine. I’m here to get them to the table,” so the whole question of borders will officially be left for later.

There is also the possibility that Trump could walk out on Putin.

Trump has made it clear in recent weeks he is fed up with the Russian leader. For more than seven months, he gave him many opportunities to engage in the art of the deal and Putin refused to engage.

And it’s happened before with North Korea, right when Trump’s critics thought he was about to give up the store.

Trump’s message is pretty clear: Vlad, get serious. Because if you don’t, you are going to regret it.

I discuss this as well as the dilemma facing the Iranian regime over its nuclear program, and the persecution of Christians in sub-Saharan Africa and the likely response by Team Trump on this week’s Prophecy Today Weekend.

As always, you can listen live at 1 PM on Saturday in the Jacksonville, Florida area on 104.9 FM or 550 AM or by using the Jacksonville Way Radio app. You can listen to the podcast later here.

Yours in freedom.

©2025 Kenneth R. Timmerman. All rights reserved.

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Ken Timmerman’s 14th book of non-fiction, THE IRAN HOUSE: Tales of Revolution, Persecution, War, and Intrigue, can be ordered by clicking here or by viewing my author’s page, here. 

Raising Olives in Provence, can be ordered by clicking here.

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