Today, with his permission, I’m happy to offer up the latest thoughts from my friend Anton Wahlman, whose takes I don’t always agree with — but are always worth considering.

Anton is a brilliant analyst and has, many times in the past, help me see “blind spots” in analysis I’ve performed, whether it be of politics, macro or individual companies.

His Substack, Heresy And Liberty, is a must-subscribe. While his opinions sometimes seem far off the beaten path, his accuracy often surprises me — and his “fringe” analysis is exactly why I love supporting him — to think and consider angles we normally wouldn’t.

Anton is a former sell side analyst with UBS, Needham and ThinkEquity and now spends his days writing mostly about automobiles and other technology products.

Here’s his take on Trump’s recent meeting with Vladamir Putin.

How you know the Putin-Trump meeting was a success

The Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska ended a few short hours after it started, and it was by any intelligent standard a great meeting. We don’t have all the details yet, but the verdict is still clear.

Let’s first establish why the critics have no leg to stand on. From at least March 2022, no Western leader, whether in Europe or North America, ever bothered to meet with Putin. You would think that because there is a war going on, that such a meeting would be priority #1, but apparently they all failed this basic test: Macron, Mertz, Starmer, Meloni, Kristersson, Stubb and all the rest — most importantly, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. None of them lifted a finger to speak with Putin. Only one or two of them even placed a phone call to Putin over those three years. They were useless, which turned into being counterproductive.

A total failure 2022-2025

And what was the result of all this complete incompetence and unwillingness to talk with Putin? War and thousands dead.

When all of those leaders are now predictably coming out and complaining about Trump meeting with Putin, the simple fact is that they failed 100% of their own attempts — or perhaps we can call them “non-attempts.”

The idiotic European negotiation position

They are complaining that the US is not tougher on Russia. Well, that’s another way of saying that they want the war to continue.

Do they think they can win a war against Russia? If so, they are clueless. You can’t win a war against Russia in its home backyard, just like nobody can win a war against the US in its home backyard. Some have tried before:

• Sweden, 1709

• France, 1812

• Germany, 1941

It did not end well for any of them. And it won’t end well for NATO, which is the driving force behind Ukraine, in 2022-2025 either. If by any chance there would be some advancements on the ground, Russia has 5,000 nukes and that’s the end of it. You don’t WANT to win a war against Russia, because if you do, then you will be wiped out. The whole idea of NATO going to war against Russia with Ukraine as a proxy was a total non-starter, and will always remain so.

It — a land war in Asia — was described in The Princess Bride as the biggest mistake in history:

Team Trump seems to understand this

Some people are easily persuaded by group pressure from the Russophobic peanut gallery who ran things under Biden, Obama, Bush and Clinton. Trump had some of them in his administration 2017-2021 too, and there are still a few of them around in 2025. However, this time Trump has some people around him who know the more accurate history of the matter: JD Vance, Steve Witkoff, David Sacks and Robert Kennedy Jr, among others. I suspect Don Jr plays a part too, in keeping President Trump from doing anything stupid about Ukraine that could lead to an escalation of the US involvement in the conflict.

The meeting: Positive signs

Everything that we saw and heard about the Anchorage meeting between Trump and Putin suggests that the US will now de-escalate the insane provocation against Russia via Ukraine. US military involvement is likely to be reduced to zero, and the focus can turn to productive areas such as trade, investment and tourism.

Prediction: War and economics

Ukraine and the Europeans may continue to hopelessly fight Russia in Ukraine. They may give up once Trump shows that the US will end its involvement, but it really doesn’t matter.

Whether there is a peace deal or not, Trump will sooner or later sign an economic cooperation agreement with Russia, and the focus will turn to the US and Russia benefiting from more trade, investment and tourism.

All the right people are bitching: Good

In the end, at least for now, as far as the Alaska meeting is concerned, we know it went well because of who is complaining about it: All the Russia-haters. This is a surefire sign. I hope Trump ignores them, or simply ensures that whatever he does, they remain unhappy.

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