Buffett’s $1.6 Billion Bet on UnitedHealth: Is It Finally Time to Buy the Dip?

Berkshire’s Big Bet on UnitedHealth

Berkshire Hathaway’s (NYSE:BRK-A)(NYSE:BRK-B) release yesterday of its latest 13F filing sent ripples through the market as it revealed a new 5 million share stake in UnitedHealth Group (NYSE:UNH) worth approximately $1.6 billion. 

The news is sparking a 10% surge in UNH’s stock price during premarket trading this morning, reflecting investor enthusiasm for the endorsement from the world’s most revered investors. 

While this position represents just 0.5% of Berkshire’s sprawling portfolio, it’s a significant vote of confidence for UnitedHealth, the largest U.S. health insurer. The question for retail investors, though, is whether Berkshire’s big bet signals a buying opportunity for UNH stock. Should you follow suit, or is it better to remain cautious given the company’s recent challenges?

A Turbulent Year for UnitedHealth

UnitedHealth has faced a storm of adversity in 2025, with its stock plummeting 50% from its April highs, erasing $300 billion in market capitalization. A series of setbacks have tested the company’s resilience. 

In December 2024, the assassination of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson triggered public backlash over the company’s claims denial process, damaging its reputation. A rare first-quarter earnings miss, driven by high medical costs, led to an 18% stock price drop in May. The abrupt resignation of CEO Andrew Witty further rattled investors, followed by a Department of Justice (DOJ) criminal probe into alleged Medicare fraud, focusing initially on “upcoding” in its $137 billion Medicare Advantage business. 

Additionally, a cyberattack on subsidiary Change Healthcare cost an estimated $2.3 billion, compromising data for 190 million customers. These challenges painted a grim picture, pushing UNH’s stock to a five-year low and raising questions about its stability.

Berkshire’s Vote of Confidence

Berkshire Hathaway’s $1.6 billion investment signals strong belief in UnitedHealth’s long-term value, despite its near-term struggles. The purchase suggests that Buffett — or possibly his named successor Greg Abel, who may be taking on larger investment decisions as Buffett, now 94, eases the transition — sees UNH as undervalued relative to its intrinsic worth. 

Trading at $271 per share with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.7, well below the industry average of 16.7, UNH appears to be a bargain. The company’s diversified operations, spanning UnitedHealthcare’s insurance arm and Optum’s health services, along with its $422.8 billion in trailing revenue and $27.2 billion in free cash flow, underscore its fundamental strength. 

Berkshire’s stake aligns with its history of betting on resilient, market-leading companies at discounted valuations, suggesting confidence that UNH can navigate its current challenges and return to its historical growth trajectory.

Recent Developments Ease Pressure

Two key developments have bolstered UNH’s outlook. First, the DOJ’s probe has shifted from Medicare Advantage to OptumRx’s pharmacy benefit management practices, reducing immediate risk to UNH’s core insurance business. 

Second, the U.S. Senate’s rejection of a Medicaid tax restriction in President Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill preserves $19 billion in state Medicaid funding, stabilizing UNH’s 15% revenue stream from its 8.7 million Medicaid beneficiaries. 

Insider buying, including $25 million in stock purchases by new CEO Stephen Hemsley — along with president and CFO John Rex buying $5 million worth — further signals internal optimism. 

These factors, combined with a 5.2% dividend increase to $2.21 per share and a $327 analyst price target implying 20% upside, support Berkshire’s view that UNH’s current price does not reflect its long-term potential.

Key Takeaways

UnitedHealth Group appears undervalued at its current price, making Berkshire’s investment a compelling signal for long-term investors. However, near-term volatility from ongoing DOJ scrutiny and public perception challenges could lead to a short-term reversal. 

Following Buffett’s lead isn’t a bad strategy, but investors might benefit from waiting for the initial market excitement to subside before entering, ensuring a better entry point. With its dominant market position, robust cash flows, and experienced leadership under Hemsley, UNH remains a strong contender for portfolios seeking stability and growth in the healthcare sector.

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