Beware ‘drone-tastic’ thinking: UK armed forces chief says ‘traditional’ capabilities still matter

BELFAST — Drones alone will not be enough to secure victory in future conflicts, according to the outgoing head of the UK armed forces, but the aircraft offer an opportunity to “adjust the way that we’ve traditionally fought” today.

Speaking at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank on Thursday, Adm. Tony Radakin, UK Chief of the Defence Staff, said that he worries of “drone-tastic” thinking and urges “caution” from those who believe “every future fight is going to be just drones.”

Radakin, who will be succeeded in his post next month by Air Chief Marshal Rich Knighton, the current UK Chief of the Air Force, argued that “traditional platforms” and holding ground will continue to be critical to support frontline operations, alongside drone deployments.

Ukraine has positioned itself as a world leader in terms of industrial supply, development and “tactical application” of drones added Radakin, as he commended Kyiv’s “astonishing” feat of deploying the vehicles to “largely” neuter Russia’s Black Sea fleet.

Equally, he said, “Russia’s strategic bomber force has been decimated by a country with barely an air force,” referring to the Security Service of Ukraine’s covert Operation SpiderWeb, carried out in June, involving strikes by over 100 drones on several airbases deep inside Russia.

“On the land side you’re seeing effectively dead zones being created” because of the proliferation of drones, said Radakin. These areas “have always existed, but the notion that they are increasingly 20-30 km (12-19 miles), and that anything that moves is monitored and risks being taken out at distance” shapes strategic thinking.

In view of Ukraine’s notable successes, however, Radakin emphasized that drones won’t solve all the problems of future wars and the promise of autonomous systems has yet to be truly felt.

“I still think that we’ve got a long way to go in terms of autonomy,” he said. “Most of the drones that we are using, or contemplating using, are less in the autonomous field. There’s still a preponderance of first-person view [aircraft]. There’s still that very human control.”

At sea, as well, Radakin said drones may help keep larger vessels safe or potentially attack enemy submarines, but it’s the subs themselves that will continue to be the “dominant power play” in the maritime domain.

AI’s ‘Enormous Military Advantage’

Elsewhere in the talk Radakin also expressed concerns about artificial intelligence, saying, “My worry with this debate is that we embrace our inner geek by focusing on the technology and its applications, and we miss the broader point about the strategy that needs to accompany it.

He assessed that “whoever reaches artificial general intelligence, and then artificial super intelligence [ASI], will be the ones with an enormous military advantage. … If ASI means I fall one second behind my opponent, I may never catch up.”

He insisted that the AI race is one the UK and its allies “must win,” conceding though, its “very difficult for most countries to do,” as the technology is the “preserve of only a few.”

ASI, he shared, “will become a very significant advantage that can be shared and enhanced by alliances of like-minded nations. And it may become a fundamental element of a nation’s security construct” much like nuclear “collective security.”

Initially at least, the main impact of AI will be to change the tempo of warfighting, according to Radakin, principally through accelerated targeting times.

“It’s the tempo element that quantum [computing] and AI will allow the current systems to be even more effective,” he stressed. “And that then potentially gives you an enormous advantage.”