Leading candidates in US Senate race are 8 points apart in new CJ poll

The first Carolina Journal poll of the likely matchup for North Carolina’s open United States Senate seat next year puts former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper ahead of Republican Michael Whatley 47% to 39%. But the poll also revealed that a large swath of the electorate is unfamiliar with Whatley; a potential opportunity for gains as he becomes better known to voters.

Whatley is chairman of the Republican National Committee and former NCGOP chair. Whatley has not run for office before but he was instrumental in keeping NC in President Donald Trump’s corner for the last three election cycles. Cooper, on the other hand, has been in Tar Heel State politics for decades, first in the state Senate in the 1990s, then as attorney general, and more recently as a two-term governor.

According to the new poll results, Whatley registers 15% favorable and 11% unfavorable in the poll, which largely explains his current standing. Cooper’s support stands at 47% favorable and 40% unfavorable.

“North Carolina’s race for Senate has only just begun, but the Whatley campaign appears to have a lot of legwork in front of them if they want to be competitive,” said Carolina Journal publisher and John Locke Foundation CEO Donald Bryson. “Cooper certainly has an advantage in this race, having held statewide office for 24 consecutive years. The name ID figures should not give either party heartburn or confidence.”  

The nationwide toplines on the “right direction” versus “wrong track” question are nearly identical, with 47% of voters saying the country is headed in the right direction and 50% feeling the nation is on the wrong track. Voters in North Carolina echo this sentiment, with 39% approving of the state’s direction and 42% disapproving.

President Trump’s job approval remains largely steady, with 48% of voters approving and 50% disapproving. In contrast, Gov. Josh Stein’s approval stands at 51% with 30% disapproving.

The generic legislative and congressional ballots remain evenly split, each showing a near 45%-46% split between Republicans and Democrats.

Asked for their opinions on specific issues, voters hold positive views of America’s founding principles. About two-thirds of respondents say they have positive opinions of both the Founders and the principles of the American Revolution. Republicans (80%) and Independents (75%) show strong support for these historical ideals, while only 46% of Democrats share the same sentiment. A quarter of Democrats remain unsure about their opinions on these foundational topics.

Crime remains a concern for many North Carolinians, with 63% expressing worry about neighborhood safety. Most say they are only somewhat concerned (40%). Traffic safety (46%) and drug-related issues (43%) top the list of local concerns, followed by property crime (36%). Law enforcement’s reputation appears relatively stable, with 43% rating local agencies as good and 21% as excellent.

On trade policy, nearly two-thirds of voters believe tariffs have led to higher prices for consumers. About 46% favor encouraging free-market competition over tariffs, which 37% support. The poll indicates that two-thirds of Republicans support tariffs, while 75% of Democrats and nearly half (48%) of independents prefer free-market strategies. Regarding tariffs’ effects on manufacturing jobs, 44% believe they have not added jobs, while 40% think they have.

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