Tropical Storm Erin could become 1st major hurricane of 2025 by week’s end

Tropical Storm Erin is spinning in the eastern Atlantic and may intensify further. The National Weather Service said the storm could become the first major hurricane of the season by the end of the week.

The storm formed just west of the Cabo Verde Islands, already bringing heavy rain and causing deadly flooding. At least seven people, including four children, were killed.

Erin forecasting

Satellite images show Erin moving westward with winds of around 45 miles per hour. Forecasters expect it to intensify over the next few days and potentially reach Category 3 strength before passing north of Puerto Rico this weekend.

NWS has not issued any watches or warnings for the storm as of Tuesday, given Erin is still out at sea. However, that could change as the storm nears land later this week.

Models project Erin curving away from the U.S., but it’s still too early to say for sure. In initial forecasts, the NWS advised those on the East Coast to use this time to ensure their preparedness plans are in place.

Hurricane season

Erin’s development comes months after the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced it would likely be an above-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic.

NOAA predicted a 30% chance of a near-normal season, a 60% chance of an above-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. The agency is forecasting a range of 13 to 19 total named storms.

“NOAA and the National Weather Service are using the most advanced weather models and cutting-edge hurricane tracking systems to provide Americans with real-time storm forecasts and warnings,” said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. “With these models and forecasting tools, we have never been more prepared for hurricane season.” 

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season runs from June through November, and SAN will monitor Erin closely as the forecast updates.