NFIB: Will Special Session help or hinder business optimism rise?

Small Business Optimism Up, But Uncertainty Remains High
Will the Oregon Legislature’s special session tamp down Main Street’s improved outlook?
BY NFIB of Oregon,

SALEM, Ore., Aug. 12, 2025—The good news out of the nation’s capital today showed an improving small business economy, but will the Oregon Legislature’s upcoming special session tamp down Main Street’s improved outlook?

Release of the monthly Small Business Optimism Index from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) showed it rising 1.7 points in July to 100.3, slightly above the 52-year average of 98. Contributing most to the rise in the Optimism Index were respondents reporting better business conditions and reporting that it is a good time to expand.

“Optimism rose slightly in July with owners reporting more positive expectations on business conditions and expansion opportunities,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “While uncertainty is still high, the next six months will hopefully offer business owners more clarity, especially as owners see the results of Congress making the 20% Small Business Deduction permanent and the final shape of trade policy. Meanwhile, labor quality has become the top issue on Main Street again.”

NFIB’s monthly Small Business Optimism Index is the gold standard measurement of America’s small business economy. Used by the Federal Reserve, Congressional leaders, administration officials, and state legislatures across the nation, it’s regarded as the bellwether on the health and welfare of the Main Street enterprises that employ half of all workers, generate more net new jobs than large corporations, and gave most of us the first start in our working life. The Optimism Index (aka Small Business Economic Trends report) is a national snapshot of NFIB-member, small-business owners not broken down by state. The typical NFIB member employs between one and nine people and reports gross sales of about $500,000 a year.

Highlights from the Latest NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

• In July, there was a notable improvement in overall business health. When asked to rate the overall health of their business, 13% reported excellent (up five points), and 52% reported good (up three points). Thirty-one percent reported the health of their business was fair (down four points), and 4% reported poor (down three points).
• The percent of small business owners reporting poor sales as their top business problem rose one point to 11%. This is the highest level of poor sales since February 2021.
• The net percent of owners expecting better business conditions rose 14 points from June to a net 36% (seasonally adjusted). This reading is comfortably above the historical average.
• In July, 16% (seasonally adjusted) reported that it is a good time to expand their business, up five points from June.

Keep up with the latest Oregon small business news at www.nfib.com or on X at @NFIB_OR

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