Is Milei Winning Hearts and Minds?

Javier Milei’s economic agenda has been amazingly successful, which is hardly a surprise to people like me.

But is his libertarian agenda politically successful? Was his 2023 election a quirk, driven by the total failure of Peronism? Or has Milei created a durable movement in favor of economic liberty?

I’m cautiously optimistic, in part because Milei’s party did well in some regional elections earlier this year. And I’m also encouraged by polling data for the the mid-term elections this autumn (LLA is Milei’s party and the UxP are the Peronists).

That polling data is from late May, so I’m anxiously awaiting new numbers.

That being said, there are other positive signs for Milei. Here’s some encouraging polling data showing support for reducing the bureaucracy.

Some recent news reports also suggest that Milei is in good shape.

Here are some excerpts from a report in the latest issues of the Economist.

…the Peronists are in disarray… Just 29% of Argentines say they will vote for them in the midterms, while nearly 40% plan to vote for Liberty Advances. …One good reason for the Peronists to worry is the sense that Argentine attitudes have profoundly changed. In 2011 some 70% of Argentines “wanted to live in a country where most things are done by the state rather than the private sector”, according to Isonomía, a pollster. By 2024 that number had fallen to 42%. …Mr Milei is well placed, but expectations are high. He must work with the opposition after the midterms, no matter the outcome. Only a third of the seats in the Senate and half of those in the lower house are up for grabs, and Mr Milei has only a few lawmakers now. His ability to legislate by decree, granted to him by Congress in 2024, expired on July 8th. …For a chance to truly crush the opposition, he must wait for the general election in 2027.

The good news is that Milei’s party almost surely will pick up seats.

The bad news is that the staggered elections (only 1/3 of Senate seats and 1/2 of lower house seats are up this year) make it well nigh impossible for Milei to win an overall majority.

Let’s look at another news report that has very encouraging polling data.

A Spanish-language article in Derecha Diario suggests that public opinion has shifted in the right direction. Here are some excerpts, courtesy of Google translate.

The vast majority of Argentines prefer to maintain the path pioneered by President Javier Milei and deepen the reforms underway… According to the study, conducted between July 8 and 9 on 1,830 cases across the country, 73.5% of respondents said they would vote for continuing the current course in the October elections… The results not only consolidate Milei’s leadership, but also reflect explicit approval of his reform program and a clear social mandate to continue cutting public spending , deregulating the economy , and advancing his ” chainsaw ” over the state. …Ahead of the October legislative elections, these figures represent a serious setback for the opposition parties, especially Kirchnerism, which has yet to define a clear strategy or a figure who embodies a convincing alternative to the libertarian ruling party. 

Interestingly, Milei gets his strongest support from the rich and the poor, as well as the young and the old.

By the way, the above numbers show Milei’s approval/disapproval rating and they are not overly positive.

However, I’m encouraged by the fact that the Peronists are underwater on their approval numbers. And a candidate/party with so-so approval numbers will probably prevail over a candidate/party with bad numbers.

Let’s close with one final bit of electoral data showing that Milei does best outside the capital city.

My fingers are crossed that Milei and his party are the victors this fall. That would show that the 17th Theorem of Government is not a national death sentence.

And it hopefully will give Milei momentum to deal with some of the big remaining challenges for his nation (including employment regulation, tax policy, and protectionism).