258,000 Phantom Jobs: The Collapse of America’s Economic Data Credibility

Guest Post by Lau Vegys

I usually see little point in commenting on the monthly jobs reports—unless something truly remarkable or outrageous happens.

Well, recently it did.

To say the numbers were disappointing would be a massive understatement. The whole thing was a statistical catastrophe—one that exposed just how broken the government’s data machine really is.

It started with the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reporting just 73,000 jobs added in July—well below the 110,000 to 140,000 range economists were expecting. Meager, to say the least.

But the real bombshell came buried in the revisions.

Back in May, the government had claimed 147,000 jobs were created. June’s number was reported at 144,000.

Turns out the actual figures were 19,000 for May and just 14,000 for June.

In other words, the BLS had “miscalculated” job creation by a staggering 258,000 positions—in just two months.

Needless to say, Trump was livid. This wasn’t just a bad print—it struck directly at the credibility of the system he’s now in charge of.

His response came fast. By the afternoon, he had fired BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer. His Truth Social post read:

Naturally, the move triggered instant backlash.

Economists, former Fed officials, and lawmakers on both sides of the aisle rushed to condemn the decision, warning it jeopardized the “credibility” of US data and the “independence” of the BLS.

To which my question is simply: what credibility? What independence?

The Broken Numbers Machine

The broader US statistical apparatus has been unreliable for years. Agencies routinely publish data that’s massaged, misrepresented, or just flat-out wrong—and when the truth finally comes out, it’s buried in footnotes and revision reports no one reads.

So no, the BLS is far from the only culprit here.

Just take the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), responsible for measuring GDP, income, and savings—the very building blocks of the national economic narrative.

Under the Biden administration, the BEA made a habit of releasing economic data that either looked great up front and got revised down later, or looked modest at first only to be revised up when it was politically convenient.

Back in October, I wrote about a particularly egregious example of this statistical sleight of hand.

The BEA had originally reported that personal income grew just 3.6% over the 2022–2024 period. Then, right as the 2024 election cycle was heating up, they “discovered” that the real number was 6%. Disposable income jumped from 5.5% to 8.5%. The savings rate leapt from 2.9% to 4.9%. And GDP got a tidy $305 billion boost—on paper, at least.

It was textbook statistical theater—inflate the numbers when it matters.

And now, under Trump, we’re seeing the same broken system play out in reverse: numbers deflated to make things look worse.

I guess the jobs data was a kind of wake-up call for Trump.

Realizing that the 2026 midterms are on the horizon, he’s now scrambling to put his own people in place—so that next time, the numbers don’t blindside him, or better yet, work in his favor.

Will that help Trump? Maybe.

But whether it’s the BEA, the BLS, or anything else, if you’re hoping these agencies will start functioning more like objective data sources and less like arms of the political messaging machine—you probably shouldn’t hold your breath.

The entire system is compromised.

Cheap Money, Here We Come

As you know, Trump’s always had a thing for spending big—from his real estate days to his $3–$4 trillion big, beautiful bill, it’s kind of his signature.

Unsurprisingly, he’s been hammering the Fed for years—for keeping interest rates “too high and slowing growth”—throughout his first term, the years in between, and now again. He’s repeatedly accused the central bank of “killing” the economy and “destroying the American Dream.”

He’s even gone after Fed Chair Jerome Powell personally—calling him everything from “a bigger problem than China’s Xi” to a “stubborn moron” who’s “costing the country trillions.”

It’s hilarious, really. Trump’s posts on Powell and the Fed could probably fill a book.

But here’s the thing…

Now that the job revisions show the labor market is far weaker than anyone thought—remember, we’re talking about 258,000 phantom jobs—Trump may finally have what he needs to justify the monetary policy he’s always wanted.

Remember, the Fed’s so-called dual mandate is price stability and maximum employment. And as far as Trump’s concerned, with CPI seemingly tamed and the labor market clearly weakening, Powell and company are running out of excuses to keep rates elevated.

And while the president can’t fire the Fed Chair directly, he can reshape the board—and eventually, the chair—through appointments.

Powell’s term ends in May 2026, and Trump has been plotting to take control well in advance of that.

The perfect opening showed up recently.

Fed Governor Adriana Kugler unexpectedly announced she’ll step down—months before her term expires in January. No explanation was given.

That gives Trump a rare chance to replace one of the seven members on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors—an essential step, since future chairs must be chosen from among board members. He told reporters he plans to name a replacement within days.

With the phantom jobs, mounting pressure from the White House, and an open Fed seat, the central bank may have no real option but to pivot.

In fact, we could see a rate cut as soon as next month, when the FOMC holds its next meeting on September 17–18.

Markets are already reacting: the odds of a September rate cut leapt from around 41% to 83% following the BLS debacle.

Bottom line: Cheap money is on its way. Position accordingly.

Editor’s Note: If this latest jobs data disaster—and the political fallout it triggered—tells us anything, it’s that we’re entering a new era of uncertainty. Government statistics are no longer reliable. Central bank policy is in flux. And the financial markets are being whipsawed by forces most investors can’t see coming.

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