HNewsWire- With dozens of nations worldwide strongly reliant on Ukraine and Russia for food supply, the United Nations warned Friday that the protracted conflict is likely to push up global food costs and exacerbate malnutrition in the Global South. With Ukraine and Russia’s capacity to produce and export food in doubt, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization warned that a worldwide supply deficit “may drive up international food and feed prices by 8% to 22% over their already high levels” (FAO).

Two weeks after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has killed over 560 civilians and displaced over 2.5 million people, the FAO reported that up to 30% of Ukrainian wheat crops would be unharvested during the 2022–2023 season owing to the fighting.

“In June, cereal crops will be ready for harvest,” FAO Director General Qu Dongyu said. “It is unknown if farmers in Ukraine would be able to harvest and send them to market. The result of widespread population relocation, the number of agricultural laborers and employees has decreased significantly.”

Ukraine is the fifth biggest exporter of wheat products in the world, after Russia. Together, the two nations export more than a third of global grain products, including 19% of barley, 14% of wheat, and 4% of maize.

Russia is also the world’s largest supplier of fertilizer goods, with several nations in Europe and Central Asia importing more than half of their fertilizer requirements from Russia.

“Disruptions to these two key exporters of basic commodities might significantly exacerbate global food insecurity, at a time when international food and input prices are already high and unpredictable,” Qu added. “The war may also stifle agricultural productivity and buying power in Ukraine, resulting in a rise in local food poverty.”

At least 50 nations, primarily in the Global South, depend on Ukraine or Russia for 30% or more of their wheat supply. In 2021, Eritrea imported all of its wheat from these two nations. According to the United Nations Development Program, 66% of Eritrea’s population was already unable to access enough food prior to the conflict.

Lebanon, Tunisia, Yemen, Libya, and Pakistan also import almost half of their wheat from Ukraine or Russia. Qu expressed doubts that wealthier nations in the Global North would fill the void left by the conflict, with wheat supplies “already running short in Canada” and the US, Argentina, and other countries likely to restrict exports to shore up local supplies.

“The worldwide population of undernourished individuals is projected to grow by eight to thirteen million people between 2022 and 2023, with the largest increases occurring in Asia-Pacific, followed by Sub-Saharan Africa, the Near East, and North Africa,” the FAO stated. In February, food prices hit an all-time high “as a result of increased demand, input and transportation expenses, and port interruptions,” according to Qu.

Wheat and barley prices increased by 31% in 2021, while rapeseed and sunflower oils increased by 60%. In its report released Friday, the FAO made many policy suggestions, including a plea for governments to avoid placing export limitations on their own food supply, as some countries are allegedly contemplating.

Such limits would “increase price volatility, reduce the global market’s buffer capacity, and have a detrimental effect on the medium term.”

Additionally, policymakers were recommended to:

Maintain a free global food and fertilizer trade;
Locate new and different food sources in order to absorb the shock, depend on current food inventories, and diversify domestic output;
Contribute to the well-being of vulnerable communities, especially internally displaced individuals; and
Enhance market openness and conversation to assist governments and investors in making informed choices during periods of volatility in agricultural commodities markets.

“Not only does the conflict in Ukraine have a severe effect on civilian lives, but it also has global ramifications,” United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said this week. “Developing nations that are currently in terrible straits simply cannot afford soaring food, gasoline, and other basic necessities costs.”