Back-to-school sales set to climb across NC

Back-to-school shopping is projected to increase across North Carolina, according to a new study by the North Carolina Retail Merchants Association (NCRMA) and Appalachian State University Center for Economic Research and Policy Analysis. 

The forecast includes projections for June through September of 2025, to capture consumers who buy for year-round school and early shoppers. 

Overall, retail sales in the 2025 back-to-school season are projected to total $84.54 billion, up $3.46 billion or 4.3% from $81.08 billion in 2024. 

“The forecast for 2025 Back-to-School sales shows the continued vitality of North Carolina’s retail industry, and the trust North Carolina consumers have in our retailers to find what they need for their students. We are encouraged by the strong projections as we head towards fall,” said Andy Ellen, president and general counsel of the NCRMA. “Retail is an integral component of North Carolina’s economy, meaning it is important to all of us that North Carolina retailers have a strong back-to-school season.” 

Economic uncertainty and market volatility remain high as the Trump administration’s tariffs continue to kick in. 

“Generally, retailers order their goods six months in advance. And so, some of them had already made purchases for the back-to-school items before tariffs started getting applied,” Ellen told Carolina Journal. “We are seeing projections for items like shoes and clothing, which are often items that are bought for back to school, that those will likely be increasing with the tariffs as we go forward.” 

While uncertainty over tariffs remains, falling inflation is welcome news for North Carolina consumers. 

“This growth suggests that North Carolina consumers are not just keeping pace with inflation — they’re stepping up spending as economic conditions improve,” said Dr. Imran Arif, associate professor of economics at Appalachian State University and lead author of the forecast. 

“This is a win-win on the inflation dropping on a number of items. I think also you see some reduction in the gas prices as well. And that, if you’re filling up your tank or you’re buying other things for kids, that’s a big piece of the economic equation as well,” said Ellen. 

In recent weeks, North Carolina’s neighbors; Virginia, Tennessee, and Georgia have all held sales tax holidays, giving shoppers a break on back-to-school essentials. The North Carolina House’s budget proposal includes reinstating the tax holiday, which the state offered until 2013. 

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