Let’s Admit It: Trump Is Winning the Trade War with Canada

Carney’s countermoves are failing, proving just how hard it is to quit the US market

BY PAUL WELLSUpdated 8:06, Aug. 5, 2025 | Published 6:30, Aug. 5, 2025

(Photo illustration by Adam Maida)

AFEW WEEKS AGO, I ran into somebody involved with the Canada–US trade talks. Can’t get more specific than that. When I asked how it was going, this person bugged their eyes out, since miming was probably safer than using words. “Must be like negotiating with a roulette wheel,” I offered. This person didn’t disagree. 

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On July 25, ahead of the tariff deadline, the American president sounded like he’d just been reminded Canada exists. “We don’t have a deal with Canada, we haven’t been focused on it,” Donald Trump said, doing his best imitation of Jordan Catalano from My So-Called Life. Dreamy or catatonic? Can’t he be both? We had a July 21 deadline, we had an August 1 deadline. Dominic LeBlanc saysthey’re “complex negotiations.” Trump says it’s “not really a negotiation.” One of them’s got to be right. Or not.

All over, there are signs of flagging motivation. British Columbia premier David Eby gave an extraordinary interview to Bloomberg, where he questioned the wisdom of further counter tariffs. The rebuttals Eby announced with some fanfare on February 1 “haven’t seemed to have had the kind of impact that we would hope for,” he says now. Adding another layer of Canadian counter tariffs might inflict “severe harm” on British Columbians without making Trump budge.

Eby’s willingness to think out loud and adjust course is among his most refreshing qualities, but it’s worth noting that in February, questioning the virtue of countermeasures was one of the things that threatened to get Alberta premier Danielle Smith barred from civilized society. Eby has begun to reach conclusions that once seemed taboo. Mark Carney is somewhere between Smith and Eby: he’s lately been in less of a hurry to seek the most theatrical response to the latest Trump sortie.

This is all deeply unsatisfying, but it may be that there is no satisfying way to respond to Trump. As the summer wears on, there is a notable droop to the once proudly waving Canadian elbow.