California Redistricting: How Newsom’s Plan Will Demolish Hard Fought GOP Gains

For the last few weeks, threats from Governor Gavin Newsom to redistrict California mid-decade via a special election have grown from pretty empty words to counteract a similar Texas proposal, to a full on serious push. As political commentator and 2026 Gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton pointed out Monday, Republicans have 40% of the vote in California, yet only 17% of the House seats. Under Newsom’s proposed gerrymandering plans, the percentage of GOP seats would fall to only 7% in the entire state.

5-6 seats would be recarved to favor Democrats, with the plan to target vulnerable districts in the Central Valley and Southern California – seats that have stayed red for decades despite Democrats doing their best to try to change the districts around. And since Newsom and Attorney General Rob Bonta are now acting in a blind rage trying to counter Texas’ plans, to the point that Texas’ move will trigger a California election and that this will most likely put Newsom’s political future in an upward or downward trajectory, it’s wort looking at the district that will be most affected by the change.

It should be noted that this is contingent on Newsom not only getting the election in place, but actually having it win and legally stick. Right now, former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is looking to fight the redistricting attempt, with Hilton vowing to bring legal action against both Newsom and Attorney General Bonta if they move forward with their plans for a November special election.

And in Washington, Congressman Kevin Kiley (R-CA) has introduced legislation to halt all mid-decade redistricting. And even if the redistricting plan gets past all those firewalls, early polling shows that a slight majority of Californians oppose redistricting mid-decade, with a significant percentage of Democrats actually opposing Newsom’s “fight fire with fire” mantra. The “Newsomandering” is being fought tooth and nail.

“Everyone across the country needs to understand this,” said Hilton on Sunday. “Gavin Newsom is planning to steal 5 Republican House seats next year by holding a special election this year to overturn the California constitution and illegally grab power and make this state even more gerrymandered in Democrats favor.”

Right now, the big five that would be affected by redistricting are Congressmen Ken Calvert, Darrell Issa, Kevin Kiley, David Valadao and Doug LaMalfa (all R-CA). Of these, Valadao is most at risk. While Inland Empire, Orange County or San Diego seats might seem more “obvious,” Valadao’s 22nd District, which covers the Bakersfield/Visalia area in Kings County, Tulare County, and Kern County, has been hard fought for for well over a decade. In the 2010s, under a different District, then Congressman Devin Nunes (R) always won the area with a significant majority, with the exception of 2018 where Nunes won with just under 53% of the vote.

Newsomandering the 22nd district

Redistricting in the early 2020’s recentered the district, roping in Congressman David Valadao into a a now majority Latino District with more registered Democrats than Republicans. However, Valadao, who just barely beat T.J. Cox in 2020, defeated expected Democratic shoo-in, then-Assemblyman Rudy Salas, 51.5% to 48.5%. In fact, the District became more Republican, with Valadao defeating Salas in a rematch in 2024 with over 53% of the vote. It went beyond Congressional too – Brian Dahle won the district over for Gubernatorial votes here in 2022, with Trump and Steve Garvey getting majority voting percentages last year for both President and Senator respectively. As it turns out, there were a lot more Republicans here than the Democrats thought, with the District being one of the shining examples nationwide that the GOP was winning over more and more Latinos.

But if Newsom has his way, the 22nd District as it is now will be fractured. Many districts will for sure, but the Democrats have been gunning for this district for some time. The Democrats poured more money into the Valadao-Salas contest that most races nationwide in 2024, only for Valadao to do better than Salas yet again. Valadao’s campaign raised around $5 million against Salas’ $6.5 million. For Democrats, especially in districts west of the Mississippi, this is their white whale.

In 2026, Democrats are pinning their hopes on Assemblywoman Jasmeet Bains (D-Delano) to beat Valadao, and right now, it is yet another tall order for Democrats. Cook PVI is giving Valadao an advantage right now, and even if there is some blowback from Trump policies, Valadao’s record on agricultural voting and other issues in the district will likely keep up his popularity.

But the district has many GOP strongholds, especially in the more rural parts. With Newsom’s redistricting and expanding into more Democratic areas and more focused around Bains’ Delano and Assembly-district base, it can be overtaken. This has drawn outrage both in the district and from the GOP.

“This is what happens when out of touch politicians like Jasmeet Bains care more about clinging to power than defending democracy. She knows she can’t earn a seat in Congress, so she’s drawing herself one, while propping up Gavin Newsom’s 2028 vanity project,” National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) Spokesman Christian Martinez said Wednesday.

The breakup of the 22nd District, as well as all the others under Newsom’s plan, would only further highlight the gerrymandering in California. 7% of Congressional seats despite 40% of the voters in the state if it goes through. Newsom had previously promised not to make politics personal. As if any more evidence was needed, the redistricting plan is.