Straw Poll: Slight Majority of Californians Want to End ‘Newsomandering’

According to a new Los Coast Outpost straw poll, Californians stand about evenly divided between wanting Governor Gavin Newsom’s mid-decade redistricting plans to go froward to Californian voters, and not wanting this to come to fruition.

A straw poll is used to show the popular opinion on a certain matter. Typically most take a straw poll with a grain of salt. But they can be used to help politicians know the majority opinion. 

The poll gave five basic responses to the question of “What would you like to see California do” in response to Newsom’s potential November 4th redistricting special election: Wanting the map redrawn, Not wanting to do what Texas is doing, Not wanting to disenfranchise California Republicans, Allowing Democrats to show their “true colors” on the issue, and Not liking any of this.

A total of 47% of respondents said that they wanted the map to be redrawn, were supportive of California’s efforts to match Texas’ efforts in mid-decade gerrymandering, and identified as aligning with the Democratic party. However, all other responses showed a generally negative response to Newsom’s proposed gerrymandering. Surprisingly, 17%, who described themselves as left-leaning, said that California shouldn’t match what Texas is doing and go into the 2026 election without gerrymandering.

11% identified as conservative and said that the move is wrong and would only disenfranchise Republicans in the state even further. As political commentator and 2026 Gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton pointed out on Monday, Republicans have 40% of the vote in California, yet only 17% of the House seats. Under Newsom’s proposed gerrymandering plans, the percentage of GOP seats would fall to only 7% in the entire state.

6% of voters, also conservative, were against gerrymandering as well, but expressed desire to see Newsom go ahead with pushing the vote if only to show how “power-hungry” he is. Finally, 19% of voters hated all aspects of the issue and generally opposed gerrymandering.

Slight majority of Californians don’t want “Newsomandering”

The poll showed that, despite Governor Newsom’s confidence that voters would approve of his gerrymandering plans in November, a slight majority of Californians oppose his plans, with roughly about a third of Democrats not wanting to, as Newsom put it, “fight fire with fire.”

The result is one Newsom wasn’t exactly looking for. As the Globe has pointed out in the past week, California is already heavily gerrymandered, with Republicans united alongside a significant number of independents and a decently sized Democratic minority on not making it even more fractured. And, as it has also been pointed out, Texas switching over 5 seats to the GOP and Ohio and Missouri likely redistricting a few more each in favor of Republicans, would not only negate any changes California makes, but still gives the GOP a net gain of House seats. And some of these redistricting attempts seem contingent on if California pushes forward with their own plans.

In addition, the united Republican front could be devastating in California. Former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is looking to fight the redistricting attempt, with Hilton to sue both Newsom and Attorney General Bonta if they move forward with their plans for a November election. And in Washington, Congressman Kevin Kiley (R-CA) has introduced legislation to halt all mid-decade redistricting.

“Everyone across the country needs to understand this,” said Hilton on Sunday. “Gavin Newsom is planning to steal 5 Republican House seats next year by holding a special election this year to overturn the California constitution and illegally grab power and make this state even more gerrymandered in Democrats favor.”

On top of all of this now is that a slight majority of Californians oppose this. But, as questionable the gerrymandering situation is in California right now, it’s even more shaky in Texas.

The issue in Texas is, like California, far from over. On Tuesday, many Democratic members of the Texas state legislature fled the state to places like Illinois where they couldn’t legally be taken back to break the quorum of members needed for a vote. The latest vote attempt in Austin had it failing because of that reason. President Donald Trump also broke his silence on the issue, saying that Republicans were entitled to five more seats in Texas.

“We have an opportunity in Texas to pick up five seats. We have a really good governor, and we have good people in Texas. And I won Texas,” explained Trump. “I got the highest vote in the history of Texas, as you probably know, and we are entitled to five more seats.”

But, as the poll showed, California is divided on the matter. And noticeably, Newsom likely doesn’t have the majority of votes needed, and may turn the redistricting issue into one of the last major battles of his career before his term ends in a little over a year.