Four reasons to accelerate F-35 acquisition now

Over the past 14 years, China has rapidly modernized its air force, replacing its operational fleet with high-performance, technologically advanced aircraft. Meanwhile, the US Air Force is receding further into a decades-long slump of being the oldest, smallest and least ready in its history.

To reverse this downward spiral and reestablish credible deterrence, the United States must embark on a Reagan-era-style rebuild of its Air Force. Buying at least 72 F-35A aircraft per year is the fastest, smartest way to do so.

Here are four reasons why this is not just prudent, but essential.

1. China’s Air Force Is Younger And More Ready

The average US Air Force fighter is nearly three times older than China’s front-line aircraft. That disparity affects more than optics — it impacts maintenance, availability, and readiness. Modern fighters are easier to sustain at higher readiness rates, enhancing combat power.

The CCP is believed to be acquiring over 240 new fighters annually, versus just 45 for the US Air Force in President Donald Trump’s budget request for fiscal 2026. China is growing its fighter fleet almost as fast we are cutting ours.

China’s combat-coded fighter fleet already rivals the combined inventory of US Air Force active duty, Guard, and Reserve fighter jets. Of the 240 fighters China plans to add in the next year, as many as 120 are fifth-generation J-20 stealth aircraft, which are highly capable. Anecdotal accounts of the jet suggest performance and stealth characteristics that are better than early Western estimates, significantly enhancing China’s air superiority and deep-strike capabilities.

The F-35 is the most capable fighter in the world. Israeli F-35Is destroyed every high-end surface-to-air weapons system in Iran without a loss, proof of its mastery. Yet the president’s budget affords just 24 F-35As for 2026 — half the number it has acquired in recent years. Those, along with 21 fourth-generation F-15EXs, bring the 2026 planned buy to 45 new fighters against a planned decommissioning of 258 fighter jets — a net loss of 213 fighters, the equivalent of every fighter in PACAF. That’s a path to combat irrelevance, and it will give China a huge edge in capacity.

While we have faced a numbers disadvantage before with the Soviet Union, we were able to offset it with the capability of our systems and the readiness of both our aircraft and aircrews. Unfortunately, we are sorely behind in refreshing our capability with new jets — and the readiness of our Air Force has collapsed.

2. Our Air Force Is Ill-Prepared For A Peer Fight

During the Cold War, eight of 10 fighters were mission capable (MC) at any given time. The other two were down for maintenance. Today, that figure is closer to six in 10. Fewer mission-capable aircraft means fewer training sorties for our pilots, which significantly degrades readiness – and simulators are not making up the difference.

It’s not just that our planes are in worse material condition — we also have far fewer of them. In 1987, just the active-duty Air Force had 81 fully mission-ready fighter squadrons and pilots averaged more than three sorties a week. Today, the active-duty, Air National Guard, and Air Force Reserve combined can muster just 53 squadrons. In a crisis, it could deploy just 520 fighters across the Indo-Pacific — under the most optimal conditions — and face a Chinese force of more than 1,100 combat-coded aircraft. With the advantage of playing on its home turf, the CCP could generate four times as many sorties over Taiwan than the US and its allies.

And Chinese fighter pilots are getting more time in air, averaging more than 200 flying hours a year, compared to our pilots who are getting 120. By the Air Force’s own standards, they are not ready to fight, much less dominate, a high-end confrontation.

Getting our aircrews more flying time relies on having more mission capable aircraft to fly. The air force needs to stop retiring viable combat aircraft and start growing our fleet with dominant fighters.

3. The F-35A Delivers Unmatched Capability — And Value

Critics frequently focus on the F-35’s unit cost: Even though it’s less expensive and more capable than any other fully equipped fighter in production, its cost-per-unit misses the mark. The metric of merit is cost-per-effect, and a single F-35 can deliver effects that would require an entire package of fourth-generation fighters, like the F-15EX, to replicate — at greater risk to life and limb.

Historically, multi-year procurement strategies have stabilized defense production, reduced costs, and enhanced industrial efficiency. Committing to 72 F-35As per year under a multiyear framework would reinforce the defense industrial base and generate significant economies of scale, driving down costs and improving predictability.

Increased F-35A production would also reduce the cost and availability issues surrounding spare parts — an area that has constrained mission capable rates. Higher volumes would likely reduce unit prices for subcomponents like engines and sensors, and having more spare parts on hand will enhance mission capability rates. During Israel’s recent campaign against Iran, its F-35I fleet achieved a reported 90 percent mission capable rate — thanks in part to prioritized access to spares.

4. The Industrial Base Cannot Scale Overnight

Every major US defense manufacturer today is optimized for peacetime output. In an age of just-in-time manufacturing, we have built-in limits on our ability to surge production — something that would be unworkable in crisis. It takes three years from funding for a jet to make it to the flightline, and the only real solution is to start increasing capacity now.

Procuring 72 F-35As annually would kickstart that process, strengthen the production and supply base, retain skilled labor in a vital industry, and ensure industrial capacity can scale to need if deterrence fails. Without an investment in our industrial base, the US — and our allies who depend on it — will remain vulnerable.

Deterrence Demands Action Now

Accelerating F-35A acquisition to 72 aircraft per year is not a luxury — it’s a national security imperative.

Congress and the Air Force must prioritize this investment by committing to a multi-year procurement contract in both the NDAA and the president’s budget for FY27. They should do that not just to deter China, but to ensure victory if deterrence fails.

Our adversaries are preparing for war and take that option from them now with our strength. There is no time to waste.

A 25-year veteran of the US Air Force, JV Venable is now with the Mitchell Institute.