Antony Davies: The rise of Reform is driven by voter despair – Conservatives must find an answer

Antony David Davies FRSA is a Welsh historian and commentator whose work explores identity, governance, and the politics of trust.

A few weeks ago, I wrote an article for Nation.Cymru about the rise of Reform UK, which went viral across Welsh media and political networks. But the story didn’t stop there. I watched as it spread, resonating in online communities and discussions far beyond Wales, from the Home Counties to the Red Wall.

The comments, shares, and debates it sparked all revealed a deeper, more troubling truth: the problem isn’t that Reform UK is strong; the problem is that the Conservative Party has become catastrophically weak.

That argument has not only strengthened with time, it has become an existential crisis. It is long past time for a reckoning inside the party we love, and it must be said plainly, publicly, and without fear. We are not merely “sleepwalking into disaster”; we are marching towards it with our eyes wide open, led by a political class that has forgotten who it serves.

Let us be brutally honest about Reform UK: they are not a credible party of government. Their platform is a cacophony of grievance politics, devoid of fiscal discipline or constitutional stability. They are mutating from a pressure group into an English nationalist protest vehicle that poses a direct and corrosive threat to the Union.

But here is the truth that should chill every one of us to the bone: none of this would matter if we hadn’t abandoned our post. The Conservative Party, the most successful political force in Western history, has created a vacuum of leadership, competence, and conviction – and Reform is simply the howling wind that now fills it.

I was a Conservative member for many years. I believed in its enduring values: nation, family, responsibility, service. I did not leave the party in 2022 because I abandoned conservatism. I left because I watched a party I revered abandon itself in a bonfire of self-indulgence, culminating in the historic chaos of Boris Johnson’s downfall and the kamikaze premiership of Liz Truss.

For a while, like millions of others, I found Farage a refreshing voice in the wilderness. I even appeared on his GB News show. He spoke to frustrations that Westminster ignored.

But the pattern is now painfully familiar. From the Brexit Party to Reform UK, the Farage playbook is one of political arson: start a fire, capture the headlines, and then walk away from the ashes without ever building anything to replace what was lost. There is no long-term vision, no serious plan for delivery; only publicity, provocation, and the inevitable abandonment of his followers once a new, more exciting venture appears.

Farage is a master illusionist, but the greatest trick he ever pulled was convincing our own party to imitate him. Instead of countering his populism with principled conservatism, we have panicked. We have adopted his language, flirted with his policies, and in doing so, we have hollowed out our own brand, legitimised his, and lost the ability to speak with the authentic voice of our own tradition.

This is not a short-term polling dip to be solved with another policy blitz or a reshuffled cabinet. This is a structural and spiritual failure. Millions are turning to Reform not out of ideological fervour, but out of sheer, soul-crushing despair.

Despair at a nation where nothing seems to work. Despair at potholes that feel like craters, at month-long waits for a GP appointment, at seeing council tax rise while local services vanish. Despair at a party that promised to take back control but has seemingly lost control of everything, from our borders to our budgets. These voters feel abandoned by a party that once understood their lives but now appears exhausted, insular, and remote.

This decay is a direct betrayal of our core promise. We are supposed to be the party of competence, the party that gets the basics right. We were the party that fixed the roof when the sun was shining. Now, the roof is leaking, the boiler is broken, and the party leadership is still arguing about the colour of the curtains.

This failure demands a profound reset. It must begin not with a stunt, but with humility. It requires a ‘Covenant of Competence’ with the British people: a solemn promise to stop over-promising and under-delivering. It means ending the addiction to headline-chasing announcements that are never funded and never implemented. It means governing for the long term, with the seriousness the public deserves.

It also demands a fierce reassertion of our Unionism. Reform’s rhetoric is almost entirely English, their disdain for the constitutional fabric of our United Kingdom not just simplistic but corrosive. The vacuum our party’s neglect created in Wales was filled by Plaid Cymru; the vacuum we now create in England is filled by Reform. The dynamic is identical: when the Conservative and Unionist Party forgets its second name, it creates the space for nationalists of all stripes to thrive. For our party to tolerate this, let alone flirt with it, is strategically suicidal.

Some will read this and accuse me of providing ammunition to the Left. They miss the point entirely. My criticism comes from a place of deep loyalty. I want the Conservative Party to survive. I want it to rediscover its purpose, to remember that it was trusted because it got things done, defended the nation, and, above all, respected the people who put it in office.

I am not a politician. I am a historian and third-sector specialist. I have sat in community halls with people who feel utterly betrayed. They don’t want culture wars; they want a government that respects their lives rather than lectures them. They are not voting for Reform because they want a revolution; they are voting for Reform because they feel they have nothing left to lose.

There is still time, but the clock is ticking. Reform’s support is a mile wide and an inch deep; it is brittle. We can win these voters back. But we can only do so if we stop what we are doing, turn around, and reconnect with the founding principles of our party: Service before self. Stability in our institutions. Prudence with the public’s money. Unity for our nation. Governing is not a performance – it is a sacred responsibility.

The choice before us is stark. We can continue this drift, chasing phantoms and aping our opponents until we are nothing but a pale imitation. Or we can begin the hard, unglamorous work of rebuilding. The illusionists will keep rising as long as we leave the stage empty. The real question is not whether they are strong, but whether we have the courage to be.

It is time to choose. Do we start the work of rebuilding our home, brick by painful brick, or do we stand by and watch the wrecking ball of our own inaction finally bring it down?

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