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The Fed May Move Markets Soon
The announcement of Q2 GDP figures has shaped most the morning’s trading, but as a reminder we could see some volatility before Microsoft’s earnings when Jerome Powell holds a press conference at 2:30.
Betting markets currently place 99% odds that there will be no rate change today, but any commentary from Powell about the Federal Reserve’s outlook for the second half of the year could move markets.
So, if you see Microsoft’s stock moving before earnings, it’s likely less news about Microsft itself and instead related to Powell’s press conference.
What Wall Street is Saying About Microsoft
Jefferies issued a note on Microsoft on July 15th with analyst Brent Thill saying he’s “very positive” on Microsoft. Thill cited a survey that indicates Copilot could see $11 billion in calendar 2026 revenue.
Jefferies maintains a $600 price target on Microsoft.
Microsoft Is Flat Ahead of Earnings
The Nasdaq is seeing relatively strong gains of .45% today after GDP growth came in at a surprising 3% rate in Q2. However, Microsoft is slightly trailing the index before earnings.
Shares are up .2% as of 10:50 a.m. ET. NVIDIA leads Magnificent 7 stocks with a 1.7% gain.
Here’s What Wall Street Expects from Microsoft Tonight
Now that we’ve previewed what Microsoft reported last quarter, let’s look ahead to what Wall Street is expecting tonight.
Wall Street Fiscal Q4 Consensus For Microsoft
- Revenue: $73.83 billion
- Adjusted EPS: $3.38
- Free Cash Flow: $20.8 billion
And looking ahead to guidance for next quarter:
- Revenue: $74.2 billion
- Adjusted EPS: $3.54
- Free Cash Flow: $24.1 billion
Beyond these figures, the number one figure Wall Street will be watching is Azure growth rates. Google just reported above-consensus growth for its cloud unit, so expectations for Microsoft will be for a solid beat from Azure.
Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) reports its Fiscal Q4 earnings after the bell today, and the company has some very high expectations to live up to.
After all, Microsoft shares have rallied 22.5% year-to-date and 45% since April 8th. What’s driving the optimism?
For one, progress in AI has been incredible. Alphabet (Nasdaq: GOOGL) released earnings last week, and its cloud business soundly beat expectations. That raises expectations for what Microsoft’s Azure unit will report when the company announces earnings tomorrow.
Let’s look back at what Microsoft reported last quarter, and what Wall Street is expecting this quarter.
As a note: live updates will continue pushing throughout the day, and once Microsoft reports earnings, we expect to post more than 10 new updates in the next half hour.
You’ll be able to get all the Microsoft news & analysis you can handle if you leave this page open throughout the day. Updates will post automatically, so leave this page open and you can periodically check back in and once Microsoft reports, we’ll issue a flurry of updates with analysis of why the stock is either soaring or falling.
A Look Back at Microsoft’s Last Earnings
- Adjusted EPS: $3.46 (Beat)
- Revenue: $70.1 billion (Beat)
And some highlights
- Microsoft reported strong financial results for the third quarter ending March 31, 2025, with revenue reaching $70.1 billion, a 13% increase year-over-year.
- Operating income rose by 16% to $32.0 billion, while net income increased by 18% to $25.8 billion. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) was $3.46, surpassing the estimated EPS of $3.35.
- The company’s cloud segment was a significant growth driver, with Microsoft Cloud revenue up 20% year-over-year, reaching $42.4 billion.
- The Intelligent Cloud segment saw a 21% increase in revenue, driven by a 33% growth in Azure and other cloud services.
- Microsoft returned $9.7 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases during the quarter.
- CEO Satya Nadella emphasized the role of cloud and AI in driving business expansion and innovation.
The post Live: Does Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) Rally After Today’s Earnings? appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..
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Author: Eric Bleeker
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