Data shows how swing voters respond to Medicaid cuts

President Donald Trump’s recently signed One Big, Beautiful Bill is facing backlash from swing voters amid concerns about sweeping Medicaid cuts, according to new data from analytics firm Impact Social. The legislation, which Trump recent;y signed, includes $1 trillion in reductions to Medicaid over the next decade, a move the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects could leave up to 11.8 million Americans without health insurance.

Medicaid cuts

While the White House insists the measure only targets “waste, fraud, and abuse,” data suggests many voters see it as a broken promise. White House spokesperson Kush Desai defended the law in a recent statement. “President Trump made a clear pledge: no cuts to Medicaid, Medicare or Social Security. The One Big, Beautiful Bill only addresses waste, fraud and abuse in Medicaid with commonsense reforms like popular work requirements and eligibility verification,” Desai said.

Swing voters

Impact Social’s analysis of 40,000 swing voters — ranging from disillusioned Trump supporters to centrists and former Obama voters — found that 22 percent of their social media posts opposed the cuts, while only 15 percent supported them. The remaining 63 percent were neutral, often sharing articles about the legislation without commentary. Critically, nearly four in 10 swing voters highlighted Trump’s past promises not to cut Medicaid, with many perceiving the bill as a personal betrayal. “These voters are not simply disappointed — they feel lied to,” the report stated. “Some see this as a major betrayal that undercuts the president’s image as a populist fighting for the little guy. They accuse the GOP of hypocrisy and are particularly angered that the bill delays Medicaid cuts until after the 2026 midterms — a move they view as deliberate and cynical.”

Medicaid recipients

Concerns about the bill’s impact on vulnerable Americans were widespread. Among those opposed, 51 percent worried the cuts would hurt the poorest citizens, including friends and family. Many linked potential coverage losses to dire outcomes. “They see a government pulling the rug from under the most vulnerable while padding tax cuts for the wealthy,” the report noted. “Some explicitly predict rising mortality rates, especially among the elderly and disabled.” Supporters of the bill often cited beliefs that undocumented immigrants are exploiting Medicaid, framing the cuts as a necessary step to restore fairness and combat fraud. “These voters see the bill not as heartless, but as overdue reform,” the analysis said. However, federal law prohibits undocumented immigrants from receiving Medicaid, with only emergency care reimbursed under limited circumstances. The legislation has drawn sharp responses from state leaders. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro warned that “over 300,000 Pennsylvanians stand to lose their Medicaid coverage” as a result of the cuts, blasting congressional Republicans for supporting a measure he said would devastate their constituents.

Breaking ranks

Maine Senator Susan Collins was one of the few Republicans to break ranks, citing the bill’s potential to harm low-income families and rural health providers. “The Medicaid program has been an important health care safety net for nearly 60 years,” Collins said. As the 2026 midterms approach, the unpopular Medicaid cuts could become a political flashpoint for both parties, with swing voters already signaling growing unease.

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