Live Coverage: Will Starbucks (SBUX) Beat 3Q Earnings?

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Stock up 2.2, Revenue Beat

4:14 pm

Starbucks reported inline revenue but a major EPS miss in Q3 FY25, with steep margin compression and weak traffic trends outweighing progress on its “Back to Starbucks” turnaround. Revenue landed at $9.5B vs. $9.50B est, while non-GAAP EPS came in at $0.50 vs. $0.84 est, down 46% YoY.

Metric	Actual	Estimate	Beat/Miss
Revenue	$9.5B	$9.50B	Inline
Non-GAAP EPS	$0.50	$0.84	Miss
Global Comp Sales	-2%	~0–1% est.	Miss
U.S. Comp Transactions	-4%	-2% to flat	Miss
Net New Stores	+308	+200–250 est	Beat

Starbucks did not issue new numeric guidance, but CFO Cathy Smith flagged a $0.11 EPS headwind from non-recurring investments and tax items. Management emphasized a FY26 acceleration with a “wave of innovation” and hinted that foundational fixes are largely complete.

Trading closing and Starbuck up next with earnings

3:56 pm

Starbucks stock is trending down, .7%, as the trading day wraps up and 3Q earnings coming shortly. Stay on this page as we send live updates of earnings how the stock trends after-hours.

Starbucks (NYSE:SBUX) is set to report fiscal Q3 2025 results after the bell, with Wall Street expecting modest sequential improvement from a weak Q2. Shares are flat YTD, as its “Back to Starbucks” strategy has yet to yield material top-line or margin recovery. This quarter will test investor patience, especially around traffic trends, partner engagement, and early returns on reworked store formats and AI deployment.

Consensus Estimates:

– Revenue: $9.50 billion
– EPS (Normalized): $0.84

– FY 2025 Revenue: $37.29 billion
– FY 2025 EPS: $2.88

Compared to FY2024, those figures imply flat to slightly positive revenue growth (+1–2%) and a potential double-digit EPS decline, depending on Q4 recovery

Key Areas to Watch Tonight

• U.S. Traffic and Store Productivity- North America drives 70%+ of operating income.
  CEO Brian Niccol cited signs of a “green wave” in partner morale and early stabilization in U.S. traffic. Investors need tangible proof — positive comp transactions, improved peak throughput, and staffing model ROI.

• Mobile, Order Sequencing, and App Enhancements- AI is central to the “Back to Starbucks” execution layer.
  Starbucks began scaling its new order sequencing engine and Green Apron model to 2,000+ stores in May. Management said it cut peak wait times by 2 minutes in pilots — today’s call will reveal scale and stickiness.

• Summer LTOs and Menu Innovation Impact –Starbucks’ growth hinges on beverage-driven traffic.
  The summer campaign includes return of Refreshers with Pearls, a Horchata Oat Milkshake, and new Frappuccino variants. Analysts will seek comp lift from these launches vs. last year’s offerings.

• China and International Recovery- International comps have been weak and volatile.
  Q2 showed mixed results — Japan and the Middle East were strong, while China faced pricing headwinds. Updates on China’s sugar-free rollout and loyalty recovery will be closely watched.

What To Track

KPI	Q2 FY25	Q3 FY25E	Trend
Global Comp Sales	-1%	~0% to +1%	slight
U.S. Transaction Growth	-4%	-2% to flat	improving
Global Store Count (net adds)	+213 stores	+200–250 est.	steady

What Changed Since Q2

• EPS guidance pressure emerged after a -14.6% Q2 EPS miss.

• North American comp declines stabilized but remain negative.

• Green Apron labor model scaled to 2,000+ stores starting May.

• Menu innovation and digital enhancements launched in June/July.

How Starbucks Stock Performed After Recent Earnings

Quarter	EPS Surprise	1-Day Move	7-Day Move	14-Day Move
Q2 FY25	-14.6%	-3.2%	-5.6%	-6.1%
Q1 FY25	+3.0%	+2.1%	+3.7%	+4.0%
Q4 FY24	-10.1%	-2.5%	-4.0%	-4.9%
Q3 FY24	0.0%	+0.4%	+1.2%	+1.0%

Starbucks has averaged a -1.2% stock move 7 days post-earnings over the past four quarters.

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