Live Coverage: Will Seagate Technology (STX) Skyrocket After 4Q Earnings?

Seagate Technology (Nasdaq: STX) reports fiscal Q4 2025 earnings after the close tonight, marking a potential inflection point after nearly two years of revenue contraction. Shares are up ~40% YTD as optimism around AI storage, HDD capacity ramps, and cost controls builds. This print will be a credibility check on that thesis, especially with hyperscaler spending trends and China recovery still volatile.

Consensus Estimates:

– Revenue: $1.72 billion
– EPS (Normalized): $0.91

– FY 2025 Revenue: $6.38 billion
– FY 2025 EPS: $2.50

These figures reflect a potential YoY return to top-line growth (+4.5%) in Q4, with FY25 still down ~5% vs. FY24 — but expectations are high for a sharper rebound in FY26.

Key Areas to Watch Tonight

•  Cloud Storage & AI Workload Demand- AI hyperscale training requires high-capacity storage at the edge and core.
  Seagate is leaning into 24TB+ HDD demand for AI pipelines. Investors want proof of accelerating volume from U.S. hyperscalers and indications that new product adoption is broadening.
• Nearline HDD Recovery Trajectory –Nearline drives make up >50% of revenue and drive gross margin leverage.
  After three weak quarters, investors expect sequential growth in exabyte shipments and ASP stabilization. Management commentary on inventory normalization and hyperscaler forecasts will be critical.
• Cost Discipline and Gross Margin Rebuild-  Seagate’s earnings power is highly sensitive to gross margin swings.
  Last quarter’s GM was 28.3%. Consensus expects a 100–150bps lift — investors will look for signs that volume leverage is driving margin expansion rather than temporary mix shifts.
• China Demand Stabilization- China’s storage and surveillance end markets remain volatile post-COVID.
  Seagate previously flagged uneven demand recovery. Look for updated regional performance and any FX or export control commentary.

What To Track

What Changed Since Q2

• Margins improved sequentially, driven by cost control and product mix.

• Nearline HDD shipments bottomed; volumes guided higher in Q4.

• Capex stayed lean despite capacity ramp; free cash flow inflected positive.

• FY26 revenue expected to accelerate >15% — execution is now key.

How Seagate Stock Performed After Recent Earnings

Seagate has averaged a +2.8% stock move 7 days post-earnings over the past four quarters.

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