The Florida governor’s race just got turned upside down.
What looked like a sure thing for Casey DeSantis has become a nail-biter.
And Casey DeSantis’ commanding lead just evaporated after Trump dropped one endorsement that changed everything.
Trump’s golden touch strikes again in Florida politics
The political landscape in Florida shifted dramatically after President Donald Trump threw his full weight behind Representative Byron Donalds for the 2026 gubernatorial race.
A new University of North Florida poll shows the race has become a statistical dead heat between Florida First Lady Casey DeSantis and the Naples Republican congressman.
DeSantis now holds just 32% support compared to Donalds’ 29% – well within the poll’s 3.9 percentage point margin of error.¹
But here’s the kicker that has political insiders buzzing. In UNF’s previous poll, Casey DeSantis was cruising with a comfortable double-digit lead over Donalds – 22% to just 9%.
That’s a stunning 20-point surge for Donalds since Trump’s endorsement became the talk of Florida politics.
“After Trump’s endorsement of Donalds and as we get closer to August 2026, DeSantis’s lead has all but disappeared, now inside the margin of error for this poll,” explained Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of UNF’s Public Opinion Research Lab.²
The numbers tell a story Democrats don’t want to hear
What makes this poll even more interesting is how it breaks down by voter participation.
Among Republicans who actually showed up to vote in the 2024 presidential primary, Donalds isn’t just competitive – he’s winning by a landslide 15-point margin over Casey DeSantis.
These are exactly the motivated voters who typically determine primary outcomes.
“It’s important to note that among folks who voted in the last primary, Donalds is 15 points ahead of DeSantis, and it’s likely those same folks will be the ones voting next August, so this race might not actually be as close as it appears,” Binder noted.³
Dr. Binder’s observation cuts to the heart of primary politics. The most engaged Republican voters – the ones who bothered to vote even after Governor Ron DeSantis had already suspended his presidential campaign – are breaking heavily for the Trump-endorsed candidate.
Ryan Smith, Donalds’ chief strategist, wasn’t mincing words about what this means for the race.
“No matter the field, Byron Donalds will be Florida’s next Governor because he is the only proven conservative endorsed by President Trump,” Smith declared.⁴
Trump’s endorsement power remains unmatched
This dramatic shift perfectly demonstrates why Trump’s endorsement remains the most coveted prize in Republican politics.
Multiple polls have shown the same pattern. When voters are simply asked their preference, the race appears close. But Donalds’ numbers soar when voters are reminded of Trump’s endorsement.
A May poll from the James Madison Institute showed exactly this phenomenon.
Initially, Casey DeSantis held a narrow one-point lead over Donalds, 29% to 28%. But when voters were informed about Trump’s backing, Donalds shot up to 44% while DeSantis dropped to 25%.⁵
An internal poll from March told the same story. Donalds led by four points initially, but that advantage ballooned to 22 points once Trump’s endorsement was factored in.
The message is crystal clear. In today’s Republican Party, Trump’s word still carries enormous weight with the base.
The primary battlefield is taking shape
The current polling reveals some fascinating demographic divides that will shape the campaign strategies going forward.
Casey DeSantis maintains advantages among women voters, Hispanic and Latino Republicans, and those under 65 years old. She’s also stronger in North and Central Florida.
Donalds, meanwhile, dominates with men, older voters aged 65 and above, and Republicans in South Florida.
Former Representative Matt Gaetz, another Trump ally, registers at just 8% in the poll.
Miami Mayor Francis Suarez barely registers at 2%, while Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson sits at 1%.⁶
What’s particularly striking is that 40% of Republican voters still say they’ve never heard of Donalds, despite his three terms in Congress.
Casey DeSantis enjoys much higher name recognition as the current first lady.
But that could actually work in Donalds’ favor as the campaign intensifies.
If he’s already running essentially even while four out of ten Republicans don’t know who he is, imagine his potential once voters learn about his conservative record and Trump endorsement.
Issues driving Republican voters in 2026
The poll also revealed what’s keeping Florida Republicans up at night as they head toward the 2026 election.
Property insurance topped the list at 20%, followed by housing costs at 15%.
Together, property-related concerns account for roughly half of all voter priorities – a massive jump from 36% earlier this year.
Immigration came in at 15%, while economic concerns including jobs and inflation registered at 13%. Property taxes rounded out the top concerns at 12%.⁷
These kitchen table issues give both candidates clear talking points, but they also favor the Trump-endorsed candidate who can tie himself to the President’s economic success.
The scandal that isn’t sticking
One potential landmine for Casey DeSantis appears to be a dud, at least for now.
The Hope Florida Foundation controversy – involving $10 million in settlement funds that were passed through political committees – simply isn’t registering with Republican voters.
A whopping 71% of Republicans say they’ve never heard of the foundation or don’t know what to think about it, while only 23% view it favorably and just 6% disapprove.⁸
The 2026 Republican primary isn’t until August, which gives both campaigns plenty of time to make their case to Florida voters.
But one thing is already clear. What looked like a coronation for Casey DeSantis has become a genuine dogfight, and it’s all because of one endorsement from the 47th President of the United States.
The Trump effect in Republican politics remains as powerful as ever.
¹ Eric Daugherty, “Poll: Casey DeSantis governor primary lead disappears following Trump’s endorsement of Donalds,” Florida News, July 24, 2025.
² Ibid.
³ Ibid.
⁴ Andrew Stanton, “Casey DeSantis Edges Out Byron Donalds in New Florida Governor Poll,” Newsweek, July 24, 2025.
⁵ Ibid.
⁶ A.G. Gancarski, “2026 poll: Casey DeSantis holds narrow edge over Byron Donalds among Florida Republicans,” Florida Politics, July 24, 2025.
⁷ Daugherty, “Poll: Casey DeSantis governor primary lead disappears following Trump’s endorsement of Donalds.”
⁸ Gancarski, “2026 poll: Casey DeSantis holds narrow edge over Byron Donalds among Florida Republicans.”
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Author: rgcory
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