Lake Mead water projections raise red flags

(Photo courtesy Kyle Roerink)

Water in Lake Mead is on course to fall to the lowest level in recorded history by 2027, according to a recent forecast by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation.

Water levels in the reservoir have steadily dropped over the years as the Colorado River – the lake’s biggest source of water – has been choked by rising temperatures, prolonged drought and growing demand.

If reservoir storage continues on its current trajectory, Lake Mead’s water elevation is likely to drop to about 1,038 feet by the end of June 2027 – two feet lower than when it fell to a record low in July 2022, according to a two year forecast released by the federal agency last week. 

That projection is based on the most probable scenario, but federal water managers also considered what the lake could look like if the next two years are drier than usual. 

In the worst case scenario, Lake Mead’s water elevation could fall even further to about 1,026 feet – one foot short of the most severe water shortage level defined by BuRec which would trigger record cuts to water use in Arizona and Nevada.

Lake Mead is already under a Tier 1 shortage – the least severe level – which mandates a 21,000 acre-feet annual reduction in the state’s share of the Colorado River. That shortage level, and the reduction in Nevada’s water allocation, is likely to continue next year under current projections.

But steeper water cuts are likely to take place in 2027 under the most probable scenario, according to the study. 

Federal water managers projected Lake Mead’s elevation would likely drop to below 1,050 feet by July 2026, triggering a more severe Tier 2 shortage which would reduce annual available water for Nevada by another 4,000 acre-feet.

Federal water managers decide shortage levels each year in August, based on projected water levels at Lake Mead and Lake Powell for the start of the following year.

The troubling projections come as the seven states that share the Colorado River’s water are in deadlocked negotiations over how the river and its reservoirs should be managed after current guidelines expire at the end of 2026.

The states — Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming — primarily disagree over which of them should have to decrease their water use, and by how much.

‘Uncertainty is difficult to plan around’

Negotiations have continued behind closed doors for months as water officials try to reach an agreement. 

The federal government has given the states until mid-November to come up with a draft for a new plan. If they can’t reach a deal ahead of a 2026 deadline, the federal government can step in and make those decisions itself.

The lackluster reservoir forecast follows a winter of below-average snowpack across the Upper Colorado River Basin, a major source of snowmelt for Lake Mead and Lake Powell.

Climate scientists studying water supply on the Colorado River were not surprised by the latest projections, which reflect a two decade trend of decreasing streamflow into the river and its reservoirs. 

“I’ve been warning about this situation since last fall. The worst has come true,” said Utah State University professor Jack Schmidt. 

Without an effort to seriously recover water storage in Lake Mead and Lake Powell in order to withstand dry years, the river could be on the “brink of crisis,” said Schmidt.

Schmidt said reservoir storage in Lake Mead and Lake Powell will only gain a fraction of the volume of water it has in past years due to below-average snowpack and warmer temperatures.

This year snowmelt inflow to Lake Powell is predicted to be about half of average, one of the lowest inflow years in the past two decades. Lake Powell’s water levels directly affect Lake Mead because streamflow to Lake Powell is eventually released to Lake Mead.

“We’ve got the onset of an extremely dry year, and we’re on the brink of collapsing the system,” Schmidt said.

Two consecutive winters with robust snowpacks in 2023 and 2024 gave states that rely on the Colorado River a few more years of stability, but with a dismal water year approaching Lake Mead and Lake Powell are on a path to record low elevations. 

“We’ve done a poor job since then and never significantly recovered storage,” Schmidt said. 

Schmidt emphasized the need for immediate water conservation efforts to reduce water use across all seven states that rely on the river to protect the river and its reservoirs from collapse. 

“The system we have is not good enough, and it’s not working, so this is a warning that we need to become far more flexible and far more adaptable,” he said. 

Despite drought challenges, Southern Nevada remains one of the most water-secure areas along the Colorado River. 

Southern Nevada hasn’t used its full allocation of Colorado River water for years. Conservation efforts have helped Southern Nevada use 36% less water from Lake Mead than it did two decades ago, according to the Southern Nevada Water Authority (SNWA).

The water authority also said it’s confident Southern Nevada can weather even the most severe water shortage, Tier 3, which would require Nevada to give up enough water to supply about 60,000 households for a year. 

Bronson Mack, the outreach manager for SNWA, said Lake Mead’s water levels over the next two years will depend significantly on winter snowpack and soil conditions in the Upper Colorado River Basin.

“The potential for historically low lake levels is what catalyzed our community’s adaptation toward using less water more efficiently,” Mack said. 

“Water conservation continues to be critical throughout the Colorado River Basin, and the Bureau of Reclamation’s most recent 24-month study further emphasizes that,” he continued.

Still, the lack of agreement between states on future guidelines has also created a lot of uncertainty for water users, said Kathryn Sorensen, the director of research at the Kyl Center for Water Policy at Arizona State University.

“There’s a total unknown still about what happens after the current shortage sharing guidelines expire, and what will be the new operating guidelines. There’s a lot of uncertainty, and uncertainty is difficult to plan around,” Sorensen said. 

Sorensen said record low water elevations at Lake Mead and Lake Powell are “the new normal,” adding that water utilities should prepare for a future where the most severe water shortage level is more and more common while communicating risks to customers.

“This latest 24-month study report is not good news, but it is what many have been warning about. The river is just producing less on average,” Sorensen said.