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New Store Development Targets
Chipotle’s growth story is about scaling stores with strong unit economics. A high AUV and a large share of Chipotlanes means:
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Strong ROI on new units
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More resilient margin structure
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Faster cash payback per store
If CMG can hit these targets, it validates the long-term growth runway and supports their high valuation multiple.
| Metric | FY 2025 Target | FY 2024 Actual |
|---|---|---|
| Net New Openings | 285–315 units | 255 units |
| % with Chipotlanes | >80% | 78% |
| New Unit AUV vs. Base | ~85–90% in Y1 | ~90% |
How Did CMG Stock Perform After Past Earnings
CMG has beaten estimates four quarters in a row with consistent upward price moves — expectations are high heading into Q2.
| Quarter | EPS Surprise | 1-Day Move | 7-Day Move | 14-Day Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | +12.3% | +7.8% | +9.2% | +11.4% |
| Q4 2024 | +5.4% | +6.3% | +7.0% | +6.5% |
| Q3 2024 | +4.8% | +3.9% | +5.0% | +4.4% |
| Q2 2024 | +6.2% | +4.7% | +4.3% | +5.5% |
Chipotle (NYSE:CMG) reports Q2 2025 earnings after the market closes tonight. After a blowout Q1, driven by double-digit comps and operating leverage, expectations remain high. The company is leaning on throughput initiatives, digital mix, and menu innovation to sustain momentum even as pricing resets and comp growth moderates. With the stock near all-time highs, this quarter will serve as a test of traffic durability, new unit performance, and how much operating margin expansion remains in play for the second half of 2025.
What to Expect
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Revenue: $2.89 billion
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EPS (Normalized): $13.08
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FY 2025 Revenue: $11.66 billion
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FY 2025 EPS: $53.71
Implied full-year revenue growth is +12.6% YoY, with EPS rising nearly 23%, reflecting strong flow-through from higher traffic, pricing, and new store leverage
Key Areas to Watch Tonight
1. Same-Store Sales and Traffic Trends
CMG posted 7.7% comp growth in Q1, driven equally by traffic and check. With pricing tailwinds fading, traffic trends will be watched closely, especially in suburban markets and digital orders.
2. Margin Expansion and Labor Leverage
Restaurant-level margins rose 180 bps YoY last quarter to 27.5%, helped by labor efficiency and lower avocado costs. Watch for updates on throughput improvements during peak hours, which the company called a major initiative.
3. Loyalty and Digital Mix
CMG’s loyalty membership continues to expand, and digital accounted for 36.5% of sales in Q1. Management emphasized higher check sizes and reorder frequency among loyalty users. Commentary on feature rollouts and promotional cadence could shape digital attach rates.
4. Unit Growth and New Store Productivity
CMG reiterated its target of 285–315 new restaurant openings in FY25, with an increasing mix of Chipotlanes. New store performance vs. mature cohort will be key to justifying multiple expansion.
5. Menu Innovation and Limited-Time Offers (LTOs)
Items like Carne Asada and Chicken Al Pastor have historically boosted comps. Investors will watch for summer LTO commentary and whether innovation continues driving check growth.
The post Live Earnings Coverage : Can Chipotle (CMG) Keep the Momentum Going? appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..
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Author: Joel South
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