Polymarket’s latest odds for the 2028 presidential election reveal JD Vance as the frontrunner, with a 27% chance of success.
This prediction marks Vance, 40, as a leading contender despite his candidacy remaining unannounced, ahead of other prominent figures.
The New York Post reported that many believe JD Vance is contemplating a push for the presidency in 2028. According to Polymarket, the world’s leading platform for prediction markets, he holds a significant 27% likelihood of securing the role of commander-in-chief.
This positions him as the favored candidate among bettors, despite not having officially declared his bid for the White House.
Other Political Figures in the Race
Following Vance is California Governor Gavin Newsom, who holds a 14% probability of emerging victorious in the election.
Newsom has commented on his potential candidacy, describing it as “a path” that could open up, although he isn’t actively considering a run at this time. The anticipation around Newsom reflects his leadership in California and profile within the Democratic Party.
In a close third position is Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. With a 10% chance, she represents a younger, progressive voice that has gained substantial attention on the national stage. Her potential candidacy attracts those interested in seeing a shift toward progressive policies at the federal level.
Next on the list is former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, who analysts believe has an 8% chance. As someone who made waves during his previous presidential run, Buttigieg remains a popular figure with considerable support from various demographics.
Coming in at 6% is Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Rubio continues to have a presence on the national stage, with his experience in foreign policy adding to his appeal. Nevertheless, his chances remain lower compared to the leaders in the rankings.
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro has garnered a 5% likelihood, reflecting his growing influence following his leadership in the state. Shapiro’s potential candidacy captures moderate and liberal voters’ attention within and beyond his home state.
Vice President Kamala Harris, despite her current position, shares a 4% chance with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Both prominent figures from different parts of the political spectrum bring a mix of policy knowledge and political resilience to any potential candidacies.
Unexpected Inclusion of a Former President
Oddly, former President Trump also appears in the predictions, holding a 3% chance. Given that he is ineligible for a third term under current constitutional limits, his presence speaks to his enduring influence within certain voter segments. The mention of Trump highlights ongoing discussions about his legacy and potential political moves.
Vance’s current standing is reflective of his growing clout in political circles and his potential appeal to a wide range of voters. Speaking on “Fox & Friends” earlier this year in April, Vance emphasized his commitment to the present before considering future political journeys.
“When we get to that point… politics take care of themselves,” he remarked, indicating a focus on immediate governance.
As discussions around the 2028 election continue to evolve, Vance’s prominence signals a shifting dynamic in the political landscape. His noted presence in the predictions without a formal announcement suggests growing anticipation and discussion about his future role.
Though the election remains a distant prospect, such early indicators offer a glimpse into the changing tides of American politics.
Polymarket’s insights have become a vital tool for gauging political momentum. The prediction platform’s ability to crowdsource opinions and probabilities provides a unique perspective on electoral dynamics, reflecting the public’s pulse on potential political leaders.
While these predictions are by no means definitive, they offer a framework for understanding the public’s sentiment regarding potential candidates like Vance. With several years ahead before the 2028 election, the current odds will undoubtedly shift as candidates officially announce their intentions and campaigns gather momentum.
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Author: Tracey Grover
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