Odds of U.S. recession drop sharply on Polymarket as Trump economy takes hold

Hold onto your wallets, folks—recession fears are taking a nosedive according to The Washington Examiner.

According to the cryptocurrency-based prediction market Polymarket, the odds of a U.S. recession in 2025 have plummeted to a striking low of 18% as of Saturday, down from a worrisome peak of 70% just months ago.

This isn’t just a random blip on the radar; it’s a signal of growing consumer confidence and a brighter economic outlook.

Polymarket, a platform where users bet on real-world outcomes using digital currency, has become a fascinating barometer for public sentiment. And right now, it’s screaming optimism—though, let’s be honest, a lingering 18% risk isn’t exactly a victory lap.

From Peak Fear to Rising Hope

Back in April, the betting odds on Polymarket painted a grim picture, with a staggering 70% chance of a recession looming over 2025.

That’s the kind of number that keeps economists up at night and hardworking Americans double-checking their savings.

But by May, the tide began to turn as consumer confidence started climbing. Polymarket users, often ahead of the curve on economic vibes, slashed their recession bets significantly. It’s almost as if people remembered that doomscrolling isn’t a financial strategy.

Fast forward to early June, and the perceived likelihood of a downturn had dropped even further, reaching levels reminiscent of the hopefulness around Inauguration Day. That’s not just a statistic—it’s a collective sigh of relief from a nation tired of economic uncertainty.

As of Saturday, those odds hit an all-time low of 18% for the year on Polymarket. If you’re wondering whether to pop the champagne, hold off—18% isn’t zero, and economic storms can brew faster than a progressive policy rollout.

Still, this sharp decline reflects a broader belief that the U.S. economy might just dodge the bullet. It’s a refreshing change from the gloom of earlier months, and it’s hard not to feel a bit of pride in American resilience.

Of course, the risk hasn’t vanished entirely. A recession still looms as a possibility, and Polymarket’s bettors know the stakes are real. Ignoring that would be as shortsighted as trusting a government promise on spending cuts.

Official Voices Weigh In Strong

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick didn’t mince words on NBC’s Meet the Press in March, declaring, “There’s going to be no recession in America.” He doubled down, tying economic growth to leadership that prioritizes results over rhetoric. Now, isn’t that a novel concept in today’s political circus?

Lutnick also scoffed at recession fears, saying, “I would never bet on recession. No chance.” Well, Mr. Secretary, with Polymarket’s odds dropping, it seems the bettors might just be siding with you, though they’re keeping a cautious 18% in their back pocket.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent echoed this confidence in May during a House oversight hearing, telling lawmakers, “There is nothing in the data that shows that we are in a recession.” Citing a robust jobs report, he painted a picture of stability that’s hard to argue with, unless you’re addicted to pessimism.

For those curious about Polymarket’s rules, the recession bet isn’t just a gut feeling—it’s got strict criteria. For the bet to pay out as “Yes,” the Bureau of Economic Analysis must report two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, and the National Bureau of Economic Research has to officially declare a recession in 2025.

That’s a high bar, and rightfully so, because guessing games don’t build economies. Until those conditions are met, the current 18% odds represent a mix of caution and hope among bettors.

It’s a reminder that while the numbers are trending in our favor, complacency is the silent killer of progress. Let’s not forget that economic turnarounds take grit, not just good vibes.