After Iran, Will Egypt Be Next?

Foreign Affairs

After Iran, Will Egypt Be Next?

Growing Egyptian security concerns show the need for a new regional accord.

Israel’s direct conflict with Iran marks its first outright war with a nation-state since the Yom Kippur War with Egypt in 1973. Despite Iran’s nuclear program or the ideology of its leadership, the stated reasons for this war, it is essential to acknowledge the deeper issues at play that have persisted since 1973. The failure to resolve the Israeli–Palestinian conflict, combined with the ongoing efforts of regional powers to assert dominance through military strength instead of pursuing integration and peace, are the underlying factors that have kept this conflict alive and expanding.

Before the latest episode with Iran, Israel operated in Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen against non-state actors. The escalation signifies a new phase that may enhance its engagements with regional nation-states. Consequently, the question now is not only when and how the war between Israel and Iran will reignite, but also which country might be next.

An Israeli journalist jokingly remarked that after facing Iran, Israel would meet Turkey in the final match, using a football tournament analogy. When confronted about this comment, he minimized its significance—by claiming he could have mentioned Egypt as well. This journalist’s remarks are indicative of Israel’s current desire to assert its strength in pursuing its regional agenda. Such ambition is likely to increase instability in a region that is not looking to replace Iranian dominance with Israeli dominance. This desire had drawn the attention of those in Egypt well before the war with Iran began.

For the first time in decades, Egypt and Israel are on the brink of a standoff. The ongoing, increasingly pointless Israeli assault on Gaza—with a death toll exceeding 55,000, alongside the now public testimonies of hungry Palestinians deliberately targeted and killed by Israeli soldiers while seeking aid—are alarming signs for Egypt. They indicate that Netanyahu’s extremist cabinet has no limits and will not respect the redlines that Cairo repeatedly emphasized. This situation has prompted Egypt’s military to prepare for potential actions if the Israeli government keeps up the pressure in Gaza to displace the Palestinians into Sinai. The displacement scenario is consistently circulated by radical ministers within the Israeli cabinet and got further currency with President Donald Trump’s “Riviera” proposal. One sitting minister took it a step further and called for the conquest of Sinai.

Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff already identified Egypt as a “flashpoint” in an interview with Tucker Carlson. He warns that the ongoing Gaza War could result in the loss of Egypt as a key ally due to the country’s severe economic challenges and the potential for government collapse. Witkoff is correct in his assessment. Egypt indeed presents a greater challenge for the United States than Iran if it pivots away from its long-term alliance with America. But tying the potential loss of Egypt to a collapse of its government due to economic failure overlooks the fact that Egypt could pivot away from the United States without a change in government. This shift could occur if the Egyptians feel threatened by an unhinged Israeli government that continues to receive unconditional American support.

For Egyptians, the situation in Gaza and the incendiary comments by Israeli officials pose a significant threat not only to the Palestinian cause, which they have long supported, but also to their own territorial integrity. As a result, the historically resilient and successful peace treaty between Israel and Egypt is now under more strain than ever. This situation has contributed to the increasing narrative in Egypt that is suggesting it may be the next target after Iran. This perspective explains the significant official and public support for Iran during the conflict, as well as the heightened military presence in Sinai.

Israel has expressed growing concern over the increasing military presence in Sinai, viewing it as a violation of the peace treaty. Egypt, on the other hand, maintains that its actions are defensive. Israeli analysts warn of possible underlying intentions, raising tensions in the region. The freezing of diplomatic appointments signifies an unprecedented low point in relations. 

Egypt is in a vulnerable economic position and is reluctant to go to war. Still, if national security is compromised—such as by displacing Palestinians into Sinai—the government may feel compelled to act. In that case, the Egyptian military could not afford to back down without risking its cohesion. This nightmare scenario of Netanyahu’s extremist government on the brink of war against Egypt will not only stoke instability regionally but also globally.

In preparation for a potential military confrontation with Israel, Egypt has recently increased its military cooperation with China. Last April, Egypt and China conducted their first joint military exercise,“Eagles of Civilization 2025,” focused on air force drills. These drills followed reports of Egypt purchasing Chinese J-10C fighter jets last October. The effectiveness of Chinese weapons, demonstrated by the recent conflict between India and Pakistan, prompted Cairo to pursue the purchase of the J-35, the Chinese equivalent of the American F-35. This adds a new geopolitical dimension to the regional conflict, taking it back to the days of the Cold War.

With the U.S. providing almost unwavering support for Israel, the current regional conflict risks evolving into a proxy battleground for global powers. As China adopts a global perspective in its national security doctrine, there is a significant likelihood of an arms race and potential superpower proxy wars in the Middle East resembling those of the Cold War era. This tendency is particularly evident in recent events; Beijing was the first destination for the Iranian defense minister after the ceasefire with Israel. The recently announced state visit of Xi Jinping to Cairo is likely to herald further cooperation with Beijing. The only way to scale back on such a devastating trajectory is to immediately start working on a full-scale regional pact that replaces confrontation with integration.

Just as after the Yom Kippur War, the region now needs a significant peace treaty to prevent a resurgence of hostilities between Israel and Iran, or a potential military confrontation with Egypt or other regional countries. All regional players must recognize that the Middle East will not tolerate the emergence of a hegemon. The parties involved must learn to coexist without relying on the support of any superpower to prevent the region from becoming a battlefield in the larger conflict between the U.S. and China. More importantly, this pact needs to genuinely tackle the root of the conflict, which is the Palestinian issue.To achieve lasting peace, the upcoming peace pact must address the shortcomings of both the Camp David Accords between Egypt and Israel and the Abraham Accords. Instead of merely reaching a ceasefire in Gaza or giving lip-service to Palestinian interests, as some recent reports of discussions have indicated, any new agreement should focus on resolving the Israeli–Palestinian conflict in line with United Nations resolutions. It should swiftly alleviate any fears of displacement for all populations in the region and aim to bring economic prosperity to everyone involved by promoting inclusivity and fostering a just and secure peace for all. Needless to say, achieving this pact will set its broker on an undeniable path to a Nobel Peace Prize.

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