Up 800% in One Year, Is Rocket Lab a $100 Stock?

Going Stratospheric

Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) is a trailblazer in the commercial space industry. It has seen its stock skyrocket, climbing 31% in the past week and 93% over the last month. With an astonishing 800% gain over the past year, RKLB has surged from just over $4 per share to over $51 today, driven by its leadership in small satellite launches and ambitious plans for its reusable Neutron rocket. 

But with such a meteoric rise, investors are asking if Rocket Lab can do more? Can it reach $100 per share, or is this high-flying stock due for a correction?

Rocket Lab’s Stellar Trajectory

Rocket Lab has transformed from a niche provider of small satellite launches to a vertically integrated space systems powerhouse. Its Electron rocket, capable of carrying up to 300 kilograms, has completed over 68 successful missions, commanding roughly 50% of the small launch market with a 98% success rate. 

The company’s Space Systems segment, which includes spacecraft design, components, and constellation management, has driven significant revenue growth, with first-quarter revenue reaching $122.6 million, up 32% year-over-year. This growth is fueled by contracts with NASA, the European Space Agency, and commercial clients like Kineis, alongside a record launch cadence, including three Electron launches in 24 days.

The upcoming Neutron rocket, set for its maiden flight later this year, is a game-changer. Designed to carry larger payloads and compete with SpaceX’s Falcon 9, Neutron’s reusability, enabled by an ocean landing platform named “Return On Investment,” aims to increase launch frequency and reduce costs.

Citi analysts project Neutron could drive revenue to $2.6 billion by 2029, with 20 annual launches and new satellite contracts. This optimism has led to significant price target upgrades, with Citi and Bank of America raising their targets to $50, indicating RKLB stock is fairly valued at current levels following its ascent.

Market Tailwinds Pushing RKLB Higher

Rocket Lab’s rally is supported by strong demand for commercial satellites in telecommunications, imaging, and defense. The global space economy is projected to reach $1.8 trillion by 2035, with satellites and rockets forming an $800 billion backbone. 

Rocket Lab’s ability to serve underserved small satellite customers, coupled with potential government contracts amid tensions between the Trump administration and SpaceX, positions it for growth. Analyst sentiment is also overwhelmingly positive, with 10 Buy ratings and four Holds in the past three months, yielding a consensus price target of $34 per share. 

However, some, like KeyCorp, have set targets at $40, reflecting confidence in Rocket Lab’s long-term potential beyond the consensus.

The company’s inclusion in the Russell 1000 index and partnerships, such as with Bollinger Shipyards for Neutron’s landing platform, have further boosted investor confidence. 

Risks in Orbit

Despite its dramatic rise, Rocket Lab faces significant risks. Its valuation, at 26 times expected sales, is growth-dependent and volatile, with a beta of 2.17 indicating high market sensitivity. A securities class action lawsuit alleges potential misstatements, which could pose reputational and financial risks if proven. However, most such suits are settled with no admission of wrongdoing.

The competitive landscape is fierce, with SpaceX’s dominance and emerging players like Blue Origin’s successful launch earlier this year challenging Rocket Lab’s market share. A potential economic downturn or reduced defense spending could also dampen demand for launches. 

It’s why some investors caution against chasing the stock at current levels due to the downside risks after such a sharp rally.

Can Rocket Lab Hit $100?

Reaching $100 per share by the end of 2026 would require a 100% increase from $50, implying a market cap of approximately $40 billion. Citi’s $2.6 billion revenue projection for 2029, if paired with a 15x sales multiple (down from 26x due to maturing growth), suggests a $39 billion valuation, making $100 plausible but ambitious.

 Analyst consensus price targets of $34 indicate RKLB is richly valued with potential downside, yet bullish forecasts and Neutron’s success could drive multiple expansion. Rocket Lab’s flawless execution, sustained launch demand, and favorable market conditions are critical.

 A conservative target of $60 to $70 per share by 2027 seems more achievable, balancing growth potential with risks. While $100 is possible, investors should brace for volatility in this high-orbit stock.

 

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