Poll Sheds Light on Potential Newsom-Harris Showdown

California Governor Gavin Newsom is facing a challenging road ahead in a potential Democratic Presidential Primary showdown against former Vice President Kamala Harris, according to a recent poll by McLaughlin and Associates.

The polling data suggests that Harris holds a commanding lead over the field, raising questions about Newsom’s viability as a candidate in the crowded landscape leading to the 2028 election.

The Poll

The McLaughlin poll surveyed 1,000 voters, including 434 Democratic voters, revealing that Harris secured 30 percent of the overall support, while Newsom garnered only 8 percent. This places Newsom behind not just Harris, but also former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who stands at 10 percent, and Senator Cory Booker and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, both at 7 percent.

These numbers suggest a troubling trend for Newsom as he seeks to establish a distinct identity in a field that may feature several notable contenders.

Peter Loge, a former adviser to President Barack Obama, commented on the significance of these early polls, remarking that they often provide little more than entertainment.

“Presidential polls more than three years before the next presidential election are entertaining but mostly pointless,” he said.

Loge underscored that historical context often renders early polls irrelevant, recalling how figures like Rand Paul and Jeb Bush dominated early surveys during their respective campaigns, only to ultimately fall short.

2028 Primary

As the Democratic Party navigates the tumultuous aftermath of the 2024 elections, the leadership landscape remains unclear.

Calls for a fresh generation of leaders have emerged amid significant losses that the party endured. With both Newsom and Harris long eyed as possible frontrunners for the 2028 bid, their respective standings within the party offer insights into the challenges they may encounter.

For Newsom, who has built his political brand on California’s liberal policies, the low poll numbers signal a need for a serious reevaluation of his approach. His attempts to broaden his appeal have included public engagements with conservative figures like Charlie Kirk and Steve Bannon, as well as a shift to more centrist rhetoric, such as advocating for cuts to healthcare for undocumented immigrants and expressing opposition to the participation of transgender athletes in women’s events. These moves have garnered both attention and backlash, yet his national profile has not significantly benefited from them.

Polling Data

Polling data indicates that Newsom’s appeal is lagging behind Harris among critical demographic groups. Among moderates, he captures only 7 percent of the vote, whereas Harris commands 31 percent.

Younger voters mirror this trend, with Harris leading at 30 percent compared to Newsom’s dismal 8 percent.

Furthermore, Harris’ popularity resonates strongly among Black (44 percent), Hispanic (36 percent), and women voters (36 percent). At the same time, Newsom finds himself far behind in support, with just 9 percent, 11 percent, and 6 percent in those respective groups.

Lack of Enthusiasm

Despite proactive measures to increase visibility and relevance within the Democratic Party, surveys show a lack of enthusiasm for a Newsom presidential bid.

An Emerson College polling survey indicated that 59 percent of California registered voters believe he should not pursue a presidential run in 2028. Conversely, only 41 percent expressed support for his candidacy.

In a striking contrast, Ocasio-Cortez was identified by 26 percent of Democratic voters as the face of the party, with an equal percentage asserting that no single figure currently holds that title, further complicating Newsom’s prospects among the upcoming leadership.

While both candidates remain noncommittal about their intentions for 2028, speculation continues to swirl.

In a recent interview, Newsom admitted he is hesitant. “I have to have a burning why, and I have to have a compelling vision that distinguishes myself from anybody else. Without that, without both… I don’t deserve to even be in the conversation,” he shared.

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