Your Fault: Hurricanes Could Maybe Possibly Cause 60% More Damage In NY

It’s all in the future, of course, unless you give up your use of fossil fuels and give your money and freedom to government

NY’s Hurricane Insured Loss Potential Up More Than 60% as Climate Changes

Insurance industry scientists put the spotlight on Northern U.S. cities in a new research paper about hurricane potential under a warmer climate scenario, finding that New York’s insured losses could rise by more than 60 percent.

Sam Phibbs and Ed L. Pope, the authors of “Insured U.S. Hurricane Loss Under a 2°C Warmer Climate,” also found that Rhode Island and Massachusetts may see increases of over 70 percent in average annual insurance hurricane loss under a climate scenario that is 2°C warmer than pre-industrial climate compared to a present-day climate (defined as 1.1°C above pre-industrial). (snip)

“These results suggest building codes applied in Gulf Coast states should be applied at higher latitudes to mitigate current and future impacts of climate change,” wrote the authors, who were both members of MS Amlin’s catastrophe research team. (Editor’s Note: Phipps is now Natural Catastrophe Lead for Hiscox, according to his LinkedIn profile.)

To conduct their analysis, the catastrophe research scientists relied on a third-party climate change dataset provided by Reask—specifically, regional rates of change in landfall rate for different intensities of tropical cyclone for a 2°C climate compared to the present-day climate. They then used the data to adjust MS Amlin’s simulated 100,000 year view of landfall rates for the U.S. (which is based on Moody’s medium-term rates, validated to be an appropriate representation of the present-day climate.)

So, all simulated rather than real world, and all based on “we think”. What about the Long Island Hurricane of 1938, when CO2 was below the safe level of 350ppm?

New York, ranked fourth in terms of absolute insured losses by state under both the present day and warmer climate scenarios, sees a 64 percent jump for a warmer climate.

So, they’re prognosticating a whole lot more hurricane landfalls for NY? OK. Who gets fired when this doesn’t happen?

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