Top Analyst Warns Democrats To ‘Hold The Phone’ On Their 2026 Victory Lap

The Democratic Party has a big problem these days. While they talk tough about taking back the House in 2026, behind the scenes they’re scrambling to find a message that sticks with voters. From rising prices at the grocery store to chaos at the border and sky-high inflation, their policies under the Biden years left a sour taste that’s hard to wash away.

You might think with President Trump back in office, Democrats would have an easy target to rally against. That’s usually how it works – the party out of power gets fired up and shows up on Election Day. But something strange is happening this time around, and it’s coming from a source you might not expect.

CNN’s own data guru is throwing cold water on Democratic dreams of a “blue wave” in 2026. Harry Enten, CNN’s chief data analyst, delivered a stark reality check this week that has Democrats worried and Republicans feeling optimistic about their chances to not just hold the House – but possibly expand their majority.

From ‘Daily Wire’:

Democrats expecting another “blue wave” in 2026 should “hold the phone,” CNN’s chief data analyst warned this week, revealing that the party’s generic ballot advantage has collapsed to less than half of what it was before their historic midterm victories in 2006 and 2018…

“Their lead is less than half, less than half of where it was in either 2017 or 2005 in July of those years – the year before the midterm election,” Enten said, noting that democrats had a generic ballot lead of 7 points in both the 2005 and 2017 midterms, respectively, compared to just 2 points in the leadup to 2026.

Enten didn’t mince words about what this means. While Democrats are technically ahead in generic polling, their tiny 2-point advantage pales compared to the commanding 7-point leads they enjoyed before their “wave” victories in 2006 and 2018. In simple terms: Democrats are way behind where they need to be.

“Yes, Donald Trump may be unpopular, but Democrats have not come anywhere close to sealing the deal at this particular point,” Enten told CNN host John Berman. For a network that rarely delivers good news for conservatives, this admission speaks volumes.

The Numbers Don’t Lie

The picture gets even worse for Democrats when looking at actual House races. According to the Cook Political Report’s analysis, Republicans currently have more pickup opportunities than Democrats – projecting a potential net gain of 12 seats for the GOP. That’s a complete reversal from July 2017, when Democrats were projected to gain 33 seats (they eventually won 41).

History isn’t on Democrats’ side either. In the past half-century, the president’s party has lost House seats in nearly every midterm election. The only exception was 2002, following the 9/11 attacks when the nation rallied behind President Bush.

When pressed on what this election cycle most resembles, Enten delivered another blow to Democratic hopes: “At this particular point, this election cycle looks a lot more like 2024 than it does than either 2018 or 2006.” As voters know, Republicans maintained their House majority in 2024, with Democrats gaining just a single seat.

Democrats Running Out of Options

These dismal numbers explain the growing panic among Democratic strategists. Without a commanding lead in the polls, their chances of regaining control of the House are slipping away. For all their talk about Trump being unpopular, voters don’t seem eager to hand Democrats the keys to Congress.

Enten’s blunt conclusion should have Democrats very worried: “For anyone who’s writing Republican House’s political obituaries, hold the phone. This is a reality check. Republicans are still very much in the game.”

When even CNN is admitting Democrats are in trouble, you know things are bad. The next time someone tells you a “blue wave” is coming in 2026, just point them to CNN’s own data. The numbers don’t lie – and right now, they’re telling a story that has conservatives smiling and Democrats scrambling.

Key Takeaways

• CNN data analysis shows Democrats have only a 2-point lead compared to 7-point leads before previous “blue wave” midterms
• Republicans currently have more pickup opportunities (+12 seats) according to the Cook Political Report
• CNN’s Harry Enten warns Democrats that “Republicans are still very much in the game” for 2026
• Historical patterns strongly favor Republicans in midterm elections under a Republican president

Sources: Source, TV Insider

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