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How Netflix’s Stock Performed After Recent Earnings
Over the past year, Netflix has beaten consensus estimates each quarter, particularly last quarter when it turned in a 16.82% EPS surprise. To get a sense of how the stock performed after earnings, we broke down 1-day, 7-day and 14-day performance after earnings.
| Quarter | EPS Surprise | 1-Day Move | 7-Day Move | 14-Day Move |
| Q1 2025 | +16.82% | +2.73% | +17.06% | +19.01% |
| Q4 2024 | +1.78% | +0.57% | +16.54% | +15.65% |
| Q3 2024 | +5.56% | +8.82% | +6.71% | +11.14% |
| Q2 2024 | +2.92% | −2.18% | −3.17% | −5.56% |
A Look Back at Netflix’s First Quarter
With Q2 earnings on deck, let’s take a look back at Netflix’s first quarter.
As a reminder, Netflix soard after its Q1 earnings in large part thanks to massive subscriber additions.
NFLX | Netflix Q1’25 Earnings Highlights:
- Adj. EPS: $6.61
; UP +25% YoY - Revenue: $10.54B (Est. $10.50B) ; UP +13% YoY
- Adj. Gross Margin: 31.7% ; UP +360 bps YoY
- Net Income: $2.89B ; UP +24% YoY
- Free Cash Flow: $2.66B; UP +25% YoY
Q2’25 Outlook:
- Revenue: $11.04B ±15% (Est. $11.00B)
- Expecting continued growth driven by membership increases and higher pricing.
- Full quarter benefit from recent price changes and ongoing growth in advertising revenue.
Q1 Segment Performance:
- UCAN Revenue: $4.62B (Est. $4.60B) ; UP +9% YoY
- EMEA Revenue: $3.40B (Est. $3.35B) ; UP +15% YoY
- LATAM Revenue: $1.26B (Est. $1.25B) ; UP +8% YoY
- APAC Revenue: $1.26B (Est. $1.25B) ; UP +23% YoY
Other Key Q1 Metrics:
- Adj. Operating Income: $3.35B (Est. $3.30B) ; UP +27% YoY
- Adj. Operating Expenses: $7.20B; UP +7% YoY
- Effective Tax Rate: 10.1% (vs. 10.8% YoY)
- Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities: $2.79B; UP +26% YoY
- Gross Debt: $15.02B
- Cash and Cash Equivalents: $7.20B
- Shares Repurchased: 3.7M shares for $3.5B
CEO Commentary:
- Greg Peters: “We are off to a good start in 2025. In Q1, revenue and operating income grew 13% and 27% year over year, respectively. Both were ahead of our guidance due to slightly higher subscription and ad revenue and the timing of expenses.”
CFO Commentary:
- Spence Neumann: “Our revenue and profit growth outlook remains solid, with no change to our 2025 guidance forecast for revenue of $43.5-$44.5B and operating margin of 29%.”
Strategic Updates:
- Successfully launched our ad tech platform in the US on April 1, with plans to roll it out in remaining ad countries in the coming months.
EPS Trend
Analysts have sharply raised their expectations for Netflix over the past three months, showing the increased optimism around the stock and why it commands such a high earnings multiple.
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EPS estimate increased from $6.26 (90 days ago) to $7.06 (current) — a $0.80 boost.
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FY2025 EPS is pegged at $25.55, rising modestly from $24.76 three months ago.
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FY2026 EPS estimates have also inched up to $30.87, reinforcing confidence in Netflix’s long-term trajectory.
It’s Netflix‘s (Nasdaq: NFLX) world and we’re all just living in it. The streamer blew out Q1 earnings, which helped fuel its 41% year-to-date returns. Tonight, it will report its second quarter earnings after the bell.
We’ll be updating this article with live analysis of everything you need to know about Netflix before it reports its Q2 earnings.
What to Expect When Netflix Reports Tonight
Here’s Wall Street’s consensus for Q2 earnings estimates:
- Revenue: $11.06 billion
- EPS (Normalized): $7.09
- Cash from Operations: $2.28 billion
And full-year estimates are currently set at
- 2025 Revenue: $44.50 billion
- 2025 EPS: $25.79
Netflix continues to see earnings expand at a faster clip than revenue. While estimates sales growth stands at just under 16%, Wall Street expects EPS to surge by 45%.
Key Areas to Watch When Netflix Reports Tonight
What areas are the primary catalysts for how Netflix will perform tomorrow? Let’s look at some key storylines headed into earnings:
- The Path to Netflix’s Long-Term Targets: Leaked targets from Netflix show that the company plans to double revenue and triple earnings by 2030. While these aren’t formal targets Netflix has release (the company characterizes them as ‘internal aspirations’), they’re now clearly incorporated into Netflix’s share price.
- Subscriber Figures: Last quarter Netflix surged after it added 19 million paid additions, which was its largest subscriber growth in history. That was an absolute blowout as Wall Street had forecasted additions of just 8.2 million. Will Netflix be able to follow up on that incredible performance this quarter?
The post Live: Will Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX) Stock Soar After Reporting Q2 Earnings? appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..
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Author: Eric Bleeker
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