HOOD Is Up 1,100% in 3 years. Can Webull Just 3x by 2029?

A Meteoric Rise and a Sharp Fall

Webull (NASDAQ:BULL) burst onto the public market this past April following its merger with SK Growth Opportunities, a special-purpose acquisition company (SPAC). The stock soared, gaining nearly 500% in its first few days of trading, briefly reaching a market cap of $29.6 billion. 

However, the euphoria was short-lived. Since its peak, Webull’s stock has plummeted by approximately 80%, now trading below $13 per share. This volatility mirrors the early trajectory of Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ:HOOD), which also experienced a post-IPO surge and subsequent decline. Yet, over the past three years, HOOD has delivered a staggering 1,100% return, though its gain since its 2021 IPO is closer to 180%.

 With Webull’s current valuation and market dynamics in question, can BULL achieve a more modest goal of tripling in value over the next four years?

A Steep Discount for Webull

Webull’s market cap of $5.9 billion, with a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 15 based on trailing revenue of $417.4 million. In contrast, Robinhood, with a $90.4 billion market cap and $3.26 billion in revenue, trades at a P/S ratio of 5x. This stark contrast suggests Webull is significantly overvalued relative to its revenue compared to Robinhood. 

Yet with a trailing P/E ratio of 10, reflecting $571 million in reported profits and $1.24 per share in earnings, BULL offers a big discount to HOOD at a P/E of 57 and earnings of $1.75 per share. Webull’s results, though, are skewed by one-time gains and accounting adjustments. 

Also, BULL’s net cash position of $1.2 billion in the most recent quarter compared to Robinhood’s $13 billion, places it at a competitive disadvantage for maneuverability. Yet if Webull can scale revenue, it may be able to bring its valuation more in line with that of its rival.

Complementary Strengths but Different Focus

Both Webull and Robinhood offer commission-free trading platforms, but their target audiences differ. Robinhood, with 25.9 million funded customers at the end of May, prioritizes simplicity, appealing to novice investors with features like fractional shares and a 3% IRA match for Gold subscribers, which rose 86% in Q1 to 2.6 million.

Webull, with 24 million global users but fewer than 5 million funded accounts, targets sophisticated traders, offering advanced tools like 56 technical studies, futures trading, and OTC stock access. Webull’s average account size ($2,894) is also much smaller than Robinhood’s ($7,659), limiting per-user revenue, but its international presence in markets like Asia Pacific and Europe offers growth potential. 

Moreover, Webull’s operating margin of 16.6% is nearly half that of Robinhood’s 39.9% highlighting HOOD’s stronger execution. Regulatory scrutiny over Webull’s historical China ties, despite its U.S. restructuring, poses further risks, unlike Robinhood’s U.S.-focused model.

Market Trends and Growth Prospects

The 2025 retail trading boom has supported speculative assets, with SPACs regaining some traction. Webull’s Q1 2025 revenue rose 32% year-over-year to $117 million, and customer assets grew 45%, signaling momentum. Yet, its 2024 full-year revenue grew just 0.2% to $388.97 million, and 2024 losses were $517.8 million, reflecting operational challenges. Robinhood’s 1,100% surge was driven by a retail trading frenzy and robust revenue growth, conditions Webull has yet to replicate. 

To triple to over $36 per share, Webull’s market cap would need to reach $17.8 billion, requiring significant user growth, monetization improvements, and regulatory stability. Competition from established brokers like Charles Schwab (NYSE:SCHW) and market volatility remain hurdles.

Key Takeaway

Achieving a 3x return in four years would require Webull to see hefty operational expansion. Given its current overvaluation, stagnant revenue, and operational challenges, this target appears ambitious. 

While Webull’s advanced trading tools and international reach provide growth potential, its high P/S ratio, smaller average account size, and regulatory risks weigh heavily. Robinhood’s success was fueled by a unique market frenzy and strong revenue growth, conditions Webull has yet to experience. 

Barring a significant catalyst, such as a surge in retail trading or successful global expansion, a 3x return in four years seems unlikely.

 

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