A U.S. Army MIM-104 Patriot surface-to-air missile system is fired for a coastal air defense event during Balikatan 23 at the Naval Education, Training and Doctrine Command, Philippines (Photo: US Marine Corps)
BELFAST — Ukraine could secure victory over Russia if international partners supply Kyiv with additional air defense systems and end resistance to long range strikes inside Russian territory, according to a senior Ukrainian military official.
“We have a chance [of victory] and this chance is quite big,” Maj. Oleh Shyriaiev, Commander of Ukraine’s 225th Separate Assault Battalion, told Breaking Defense in a July 11 interview. “Right now, if we receive air defense resources, plus the means of conducting long range strikes, then the issue that will come to the agenda will not be a ceasefire, but a victory of the civilized world, of the civilized West in this war.”
Shyriaiev’s comments have taken on a new light in the wake of two developments out of Washington. On Monday, President Donald Trump announced a new weapons deal with NATO countries that includes urgently needed Patriot batteries and PAC-3 interceptors. And on Tuesday, the Financial Times, citing two people familiar with the discussion, reported that Trump floated the idea of Ukraine hitting Moscow and St. Petersburg in a conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelensky.
Trump announced during a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in the Oval Office on Monday that the Patriot supplies could arrive in Kyiv within days. He did not mention how many systems will be acquired by alliance members before being sent to Ukraine, but negotiations revolved around 10 units, according to Denmark’s defense minister Troels Lund Poulsen.
Shyriaiev stressed that Ukraine has a “dire need” to improve its air defenses in the face of continued Russian bombardment and stressed that additional Patriots are critical.
“There is a lack of them,” he said. “There are not enough to cover the whole of Ukraine, which is why territories that are close to the frontline are really pounded every day and suffer under constant missile attacks.”
According to Action on Armed Violence, a UK based arms monitoring group, Ukraine has received six “fully operational” Patriot batteries: two from the US, two from Germany, one from Romania and one from a joint “contribution” between Germany and the Netherlands.
The Raytheon produced air defense system has been credited with shooting down or damaging a range of Russian equipment, including Kh-47M2 Kinzhal ballistic missiles, Su-34 fighter jets, A-50 airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft and an Il-22 bomber.
In February, the UK based International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank assessed that even when military aid already supplied to Kyiv and equipment due for delivery are considered, “Ukraine’s air and missile-defence capabilities remain insufficient amid Russian efforts to sustain or increase their attacks for the remainder of the year.”
Trump’s announcement on Monday appeared to rekindle US support for Ukraine amid Trump’s increasing disillusionment with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and at least for now marks a shift in policy from a US president who had a famously combative meeting with Zelenskyy earlier this year.
Trump had “good will” toward Putin when he entered a second presidential term but the Russian leader failed to listen to “Trump’s call for peace” by “sabotaging” proposals during talks in Istanbul and demanding Ukraine give up “additional territory,” according to Shyriaiev.
“I think that Trump’s rhetoric has changed for the better and it is something that I can only assess positively.”
In recent months, Russia has also ramped up drone strikes against Ukraine, reaching close to 500 per day on occasion. Ukraine could choke Russian drone production by directly striking its in country manufacturing facilities, said Shyriaiev, but for that to happen “we would need long range missiles and a firm decision to actually use them,” he noted.
The Biden administration approved the use of Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) by Kyiv in 2024 to hit back against Russia in border areas, but Washington and other Ukrainian partners like Germany remain hesitant to permit strikes deep into Russian territory, largely because of fears related to conflict escalation.
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Author: Tim Martin
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