Ahead of key US Senate announcements, new poll shows conservatives’ path to victory

As key GOP and Democratic candidates make final decisions about entering North Carolina’s open 2026 US Senate race, a new survey conducted by American Majority-Action, reveals a pathway for conservative victories in North Carolina through targeted voter education, outreach, and early voting mobilization.

The poll specifically surveyed right-of-center voters across the state that voted in one or both of the last two presidential elections (2020, 2024) but have no history of voting in mid-term elections. This is a group that American Majority-Action says must be mobilized in mass for conservatives to win the US Senate race in North Carolina and key elections across the state.

“Conservatives have a historic opportunity to feed and grow the new multi-generational, racially, and ethnically diverse working-class coalition that propelled them to victory in 2024,” said Ryan Burell, president of Spry Strategies, which conducted the research on behalf of American Majority-Action North Carolina, an organization which works to increase voter participation, according to the organization’s website. “This requires reimagined voter outreach focused on the successes of the America First Agenda, combined with dedicated, consistent early voting efforts.”

North Carolina Republican primary voters who turn out for presidential elections but skip midterms reveal overwhelming support for President Donald Trump and a growing commitment to early voting — an area where conservatives have historically lagged.

According to the North Carolina Off-Year Primary Survey, conducted June 15–21 among 500 GOP voters, 82% of lower-propensity Trump-aligned voters approve of the job Trump is doing, including 70% who “strongly approve.” The poll, conducted through online, mobile, and live landline interviews, has a margin of error of ±4.6 percentage points. The poll’s crosstabs are available here.

Support for the Republican-controlled Congress also remains high, with 78% approving of the current GOP majorities, compared to 21% who disapprove.

In the poll, early voting emerged as a major theme among respondents, reflecting changes that helped Republicans outperform Democrats in North Carolina’s 2024 election. The survey shows that 73% of low-propensity conservatives who plan to vote in 2026 intend to vote early, with 68% preferring in-person early voting and 5% opting for mail-in ballots. This mirrors GOP turnout strategies from 2024, when conservative campaigns made significant gains by investing in early voting outreach.

Respondents also strongly acknowledged early voting’s role in Trump’s 2024 win in North Carolina:

• 79% said it was important, including 50% who said it was very important.
• 78% believe it’s important for Republicans and Trump-aligned voters to embrace early voting in 2026, with 52% calling it “extremely important.”

The findings echo broader national trends from the Pew Research Center, which found that Trump’s 2024 coalition was more racially and ethnically diverse than in previous cycles. Trump won 48% of Hispanic voters (compared to 36% in 2020) and 15% of Black voters, nearly doubling his 2020 share. Pew also noted Trump’s victory would have been even stronger had all eligible voters turned out, highlighting the growing importance of mobilizing less frequent but enthusiastic conservative voters.

As North Carolina prepares for the 2026 midterms, the survey suggests that Republicans who sustain their early voting momentum — and deepen outreach to low-propensity Trump voters — may be better positioned to retain their edge.

“The results indicate that low-propensity conservative voters understand the importance of early voting and are willing to do it — but they’ll need help through education and mobilization,” said American Majority-Action president Ned Ryun. “The historic gains in 2024 didn’t happen by accident, and they won’t automatically happen again. It will require an all-hands-on-deck approach from the White House to the precinct level, with specific early voting plans starting early and continuing through Election Day.”

In 2024 American Majority-Action made 11 million phones calls; knocked a million and a half doors; and, along with Trump’s focus on early voting, helped flip Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin along with retaining closely divided North Carolina.

Ryun added that new strategies for 2026 must include outreach to new members of the Trump working-class coalition.

“Efforts can’t simply be focused on reminding people when and how to vote early,” he said. “We must begin talking to and listening to these voters early, helping them understand how crucial it is to maintain conservative congressional majorities — and adopting the right messages to engage them.”

“We will start early and do our part, and all America First conservatives must do so as well,” added Ryun.

Impact on North Carolina in 2026

With former Gov. Roy Cooper expected to enter the open 2026 US Senate race, Democrats may have the wind at their backs trying to win a Senate race for the first time since 2008. There will be four other statewide races on the 2026 ballot — three Court of Appeals seats and one NC Supreme Court race. However, according to American Majority Action, if conservatives can build on the positive trends in their favor, Republicans may be able to stave off the typical midterm slump.

“North Carolina Republicans have more raw voters in their camp than ever before,” said Dallas Woodhouse, state director of American Majority-Action, a former executive director of the NCGOP. “Many of these young, Hispanic, and black voters are new to the conservative/Trump coalition. They don’t have a history of voting in mid-terms. If conservatives can solidify the new Trump coalition and get them to vote again, Republicans can beat Roy Cooper and anybody else on the ballot in 2026.”

Woodhouse noted that according to the John Locke Foundation’s vote tracker, NC Democrats have 560,000 fewer and Republicans 290,000 more registered voters than they had on election day in 2008, a net positive change of 850,000 in partisan registration for Republicans.

poll insights

• 89% of low-propensity voters believe it’s important for President Trump to maintain GOP majorities in Congress, even if they are disappointed with the current Republican-led US House and Senate.

When asked which issues would most motivate them to vote in the 2026 midterms (for the first time):

• 32% — to protect Trump’s economic policies
• 24% — to continue strong immigration enforcement
• 14% — to avoid another Trump impeachment
• 7% — to maintain strong anti-crime policies

Nearly half of these lower-propensity voters said nothing would keep them from voting in 2026, suggesting they could shift from being lower to higher propensity voters.

Potential deterrents to voting in 2026 include:

• 20% — GOP opposition to Trump’s policies
• 17% — economic recession
• 12% — backsliding on immigration enforcement
• 7% — overreach by President Trump himself

When prompted about possible consequences if Democrats retake Congress:

• 67% fear increased crime and terrorism
• 61% fear more illegal immigration
• 62% believe the economy will worsen
• 60% believe American culture will worsen
• 56% believe their families will be worse off

“A traditionally sleepy, low-turnout midterm election now favors liberals — a significant change from just a few years ago,” said Woodhouse. “We must nurture this new coalition, engage with them early, and understand their concerns. Most importantly, we need to help them realize that the issues they care about are on the ballot in 2026 — even if President Trump himself isn’t.”

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