Millions Will Die Unless US Aid Money is Replaced

AP (“The UN warns millions will die by 2029 if US funding for HIV programs isn’t replaced“):

Years of American-led investment into AIDS programs has reduced the number of people killed by the disease to the lowest levels seen in more than three decades and provided life-saving medicines for some of the world’s most vulnerable.

But in the last six months, the sudden withdrawal of U.S. money has caused a “systemic shock,” U.N. officials warned, adding that if the funding isn’t replaced, it could lead to more than 4 million AIDS-related deaths and 6 million more HIV infections by 2029.

A new UNAIDS report released Thursday said the funding losses have “already destabilized supply chains, led to the closure of health facilities, left thousands of health clinics without staff, set back prevention programs, disrupted HIV testing efforts and forced many community organizations to reduce or halt their HIV activities.”

[…]

The $4 billion that the United States pledged for the global HIV response for 2025 disappeared virtually overnight in January, when U.S. President Donald Trump ordered that all foreign aid be suspended and later moved to shutter the U.S. AID agency.

Andrew Hill, an HIV expert at the University of Liverpool who is not connected to the United Nations, said that while Trump is entitled to spend U.S. money as he sees fit, “any responsible government would have given advance warning so countries could plan,” instead of stranding patients in Africa where clinics were closed overnight.

The U.S. President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, or PEPFAR, was launched in 2003 by U.S. President George W. Bush, the biggest-ever commitment by any country focused on a single disease.

[…]

Experts also fear another significant loss — data.

The U.S. paid for most HIV surveillance in African countries, including hospital, patient and electronic records, all of which has now abruptly ceased, according to Dr. Chris Beyrer, director of the Global Health Institute at Duke University.

“Without reliable data about how HIV is spreading, it will be incredibly hard to stop it,” he said.

Bush will, almost certainly, be most remembered for launching the Global War on Terror and, especially, the Iraq War. But PEPFAR and the Millennium Challenge Corporation are arguably his most impactful contributions. PEPFAR alone has saved an estimated 26 million lives, and doubtless saved multiples of that from requiring HIV treatment.

Four billion dollars is a drop in the bucket for a country that spends $7 trillion a year. It’s literally less than a rounding error. A million-plus saved lives a year is a pretty damn good return on that investment.

Realistically, that money isn’t going to be replaced. If anything, US backsliding will give others license to follow suit.