Midterms are looming on the horizon

If you read the headlines and thought, “It is much too early to be crystal-balling the 2026 midterm elections,” you are correct. But that has not stopped politicians and the pundit class from launching into their favorite pastime. MSNBC has already declared it “the start of the midterm election season.”  It appears we have evolved into a culture where politics is always on the front burner. Given that reality, I will join the punditry—not as a volunteer, but as a reluctant captive.

Of course, it is much too early to… (oh, we covered that).

James Carville – the prince of pundits – has offered his opinion, bold as usual. He is predicting that Democrats will pick up 40 House seats due to the passage of President Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill (now law). That is a lot of seats to flip, but it would not be unprecedented.

• In 1966, Republicans gained 47 seats with Lyndon Johnson in the White House.
• In 1974, Democrats gained 49 seats with Gerald Ford in the Oval Office.
• In 1994, Republicans flipped 52 seats with Bill Clinton as President.
• And in 2010, Republicans gained a whopping 63 seats when Barack Obama was President. (Of the 2010 midterm election, Obama summed it up: “We took a shellacking.”)

With Trump in the White House in 2018, Democrats picked up 41 seats and won control of the House. In 2022, with Joe Biden as President, Republicans picked up 9 seats—just enough to control the House.

That history is why I have gone out on a limb to predict that Democrats will take control of the House in 2026. They only need to flip three seats. And the party that controls the White House has lost more than 3 seats in virtually every midterm election.

However, I do believe Carville’s projection is far too high. I would put the number of seats gained by Democrats at 10 or fewer – at this time. I add that caveat because it is very early (cannot emphasize that enough), and we are not dealing with normal times. Whatever one thinks of Trump, he is a political phenomenon. He made fools out of the pundits and pollsters in 2016—and again in 2024. Carville was wrong in both 2016 and 2024, as were many other political prognosticators. (For the record, I was wrong in 2016 and right in 2024.)

Democrats are almost giddy over their prospects in 2026. But we have seen that giddiness turn into despair before. If the election were held today, the Big Beautiful Bill might be the political liability Democrats hope it to be. But with a year and a half to go, the perception of the Bill—and other issues reflecting on Trump and congressional Republicans – are likely to shift.

Part of that shift depends on how effectively the GOP can reframe the bill. Between now and then, Trump and the Republicans may be more effective in messaging than they were while it made its way through Congress. If, as I suspect, the experience of the next year or so fails to live up to Democrats’ draconian predictions, the legislation may be viewed more favorably.

Democrat attacks on the Bill could backfire, especially if voters are reminded that Democrats voted for the largest tax increase in American history. They voted to keep trans men in women’s sports. They voted against securing the border and deporting almost anyone.

Trump may also rack up more wins with his tariff strategy. If the predicted rise in inflation or a recession fails to materialize, it will further damage the credibility of Trump’s obsessive critics. It is also possible that the war in Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East will be over by then.  It could be a time of peace and prosperity.

As I have often said, elections are about what voters decide to decide upon. It would be a huge mistake for Democrats to assume that voters will focus on the issues and narratives as they present them. They have made that mistake before—and seem poised to make it again.

Enough looking into the distant future—for now. There will be periodic updates.

So, there it is.

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