Time to rally the troops: GOP’s Winsome Sears trailing in Virginia gubernatorial bellwether race

Posted on by Constitutional Nobody

Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, a Republican, is currently grossly underperforming poll-wise in the state’s bellwether gubernatorial race.

Polling averages maintained by RealClearPolitics show Earle-Sears’ Democrat opponent, former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, leading her by a noticeable 6.6  percentage points.

But the latest recorded poll, conducted by Roanoke College in early May, showed Spanberger ahead by a whopping 17 percentage points.

These are bad numbers for Earle-Sears and Republicans in general, especially given the perception that this race is a bellwether for 2026.

“The races could prove to be a litmus test for the first year of Trump’s second administration as Republicans prepare to defend their majorities in Congress next year, especially as Virginia has a tendency to oscillate between the two parties in the race for governor,” The Hill notes.

Making matters worse, Spanberger is also leading Earle-Sears in fundraising. She’s reportedly raised $6.5 million compared to her Republican challenger’s $3.5 million. Likewise, she has $14 million in the bank, while Earle-Sears is stuck with just $3 million.

Spanberger also has the advantage of having won quite a few formidable races.

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“Spanberger, a former intelligence officer, has a history as a formidable candidate, having unseated former Rep. Dave Brat (R) in the state’s highly competitive 7th Congressional District and gone on to win reelection twice,” according to The Hill.

Earle-Sears meanwhile has the advantage of being a close ally of current Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, a Republican who’s been deeply successful, particularly in job creation.

“[Voters] all pretty much say they want what we are doing in Virginia to continue, and my opponent’s problem is she was never a part of creating this great economy that we have, bringing all these jobs to Virginia,” she told The Hill.

Spanberger’s focus, on the other hand, has been on all the bureaucrats who lost their jobs because of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), a Trump administration creation designed to rein in wasteful spending.

“Virginia is home to more than 320,000 federal employees,” she told The Hill in an interview. “I will never miss an opportunity to make sure the president understands that the haphazard DOGE effort has been deeply, deeply detrimental to Virginians, to their families, to our economy, and that the havoc it has wreaked across our commonwealth is so significant.”

This is a top issue in Virginia because the state “has one of the nation’s highest concentrations of federal workers,” according to University of Virginia’s Center for Politics political analyst J. Miles Coleman.

“Trump seemed to hand Spanberger a campaign issue on a silver platter,” Coleman wrote in April, referencing President Donald Trump’s embrace of DOGE.

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But not all is lost for Earle-Sears, according to a recent analysis from Founders Insight, a Republican research firm.

“Most political observers privately think Virginia will be blue forever after 2025,” the firm wrote in a report published in June. “But not so fast, the Commonwealth’s political fundamentals appear more fluid than conventional wisdom suggested.”

“Economic anxieties are reshaping voter priorities in ways that could benefit Republicans, while high undecided rates indicate an unusually unsettled electorate heading into the general election,” they added.

Earle-Sears does face some criticism from her own side of the aisle. Two months ago, veteran GOP strategist Chris LaCivita accused her staff of being “amateurs”:

LaCivita previously served as a senior adviser to President Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign, so he arguably knows his stuff.

For the most part, though, what Earle-Sears is dealing with is a base that’s itching to show up on Election Day for her.

Look:

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Author: Vivek Saxena

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