A year since the election – and could there be a slither of light?

It was this time last year that voters went to the polls and sent the Tory party a clear message – as one shadow cabinet member put it: “Sit in the corner and think about what you’ve done.”

The Conservative government came to an end, leaving the party with its worst parliamentary defeat in history – just 121 MPs. Labour secured the largest majority government in 25 years, while Reform, still relatively new, managed to capture 14.3 per cent of the vote.

Look at what a single year of Labour government, and Reform carving out their version of opposition, has offered the country.

From Labour: rising unemployment, taxes set to increase even further, record small boat crossings, and a wealth exodus.

From Reform: promises to scrap the two-child benefit cap, increase winter fuel payments, nationalise British Steel and 50 per cent of key utility companies – without any serious plan to pay for it.

Rishi Sunak’s warnings during the election now seem a sobering reflection, though he didn’t do enough to stop it.

“Mark my words, your taxes are going up if [Starmer] is in charge,” Sunak said. He was right. “It is in their DNA. You name it: your pension, your council tax, your home, your car—they will tax it.”

“If Keir Starmer is your Prime Minister, all those illegal migrants will be out on our streets. That is the choice for you. Do not surrender our borders.” Again, he had a point.

Some have already begun mounting the defence of the Tories’ 14 years in power, including Michael Gove just yesterday for ConHome. As many former ministers remind me, the party kept getting elected; it can’t have been all bad for 14 straight years.

Even among MPs not naturally aligned with Kemi Badenoch’s leadership, some feel there is a glimmer of hope – a sliver of light in the tunnel – suggesting a path back to government by carving out a space between Labour and Reform, especially on the economy.

As one shadow minister put it:

“I was recently between a depressed Labour MP struggling to defend their promises on growth versus what they’ve been delivering, and a Reform figure who recognised the problem with Farage’s personality politics and the fact their numbers just don’t add up. There’s a world where we articulate a proper, sensible economic plan and people find their way back to us.”

Another MP agrees but is gloomier:

“We should always make it about the economy when we can, but we keep failing to.”

Amid a breakdown of the usual two-party domination, the party continues to poll terribly. Reform is coming in at 26–34 per cent. Labour seems to be fracturing, with Zarah Sultana trying to create a new outfit potentially led by Jeremy Corbyn – an ultra-left party polling at around 10 per cent, not far off the Conservative Party at 15–18.

The Tories run the risk of becoming the phantoms of the political history they created, haunting it but never really being able to inhabit it again.

Some Tory figures even worry that a snap election would leave the party “done for.” The mood is not fantastic.

“Self-preservation occupies every MP,” one former Tory MP says. It makes them nervous, jumpy, and convinced they themselves have the answers.

As one former Sunak aide jokes:

“It’s not so easy, is it, being leader of the party. Keeping Tories united is, surprisingly enough, a really difficult job.”

Badenoch started with a tough hand, even just on the parliamentary party. There were MPs who stood at the last election because they didn’t want to be seen abandoning the party in difficult times. Now, most of those figures are not getting involved.

“It’s not Kemi’s fault that the grandees are walking away and acting entitled,” one shadow minister says. “It would be nice if she had the option to bring back some cool-headed, experienced people, but they’re not keen.”

Other MPs report growing frustration in local Tory associations over the leadership.

“With every event people seem to be complaining more. They say there’s a lack of engagement but also a lack of hope. People seem really turned off already,” one says.

“I think being in Parliament for a full year has made people forget how horrible it was out there during the election,” one new MP adds. “But every time we break for recess and interact with reality, people come back feeling worse.”

MPs who once upon a time signed her nomination papers have now openly been expressing regret. “People are either hugely disappointed – they saw promise and feel let down – or they just think it is going badly,” one Tory source tells me.

But Badenoch can take some comfort from the fact she can’t be ousted until November, thanks to 1922 Committee rules. Even some sceptics concede she’ll likely stay the course, partly because the alternative could be worse:

“The only way it would happen is if things got really, really bad and we could all rally behind someone effectively crowned as an appointee.”

Another MP adds:

“What we really, truly need is sensible conservatism—something that appeals to Labour, Lib Dem, and Reform voters—with someone who has a prime-ministerial look and feel.

“I don’t know exactly where that comes from, but there’s little value in another leadership election just to come out with Reform-lite.”

Thankfully for her, one shadow cabinet ally says: “Kemi doesn’t do woe.” Badenoch’s sudden efforts to schmooze what are clearly some downbeat MPs have been noticed, even if they feel rushed. Next week she’s hosting a lunch for the 2024 intake to mark a year in Parliament. On Tuesday night she gathered all MPs for a pub quiz (with just three working days’ notice). A group called “The Four U-turns” won, and according to one MP:

“Kemi looked genuinely relaxed and on friendly form.”

Previously, a Tory source had told me she tended to stand in the corner chatting only to Julia Lopez, her PPS, at such events. But another MP reported this time:

“They weren’t sat together—she was actually working the room.”

Though when Badenoch left the quiz early, citing PMQs prep, one MP quipped:

“She prepares for that?”

Still, while some weeks Starmer has a terrible time and, according to one former MP, “the Tories somehow seem to fare even worse”, this week was a good one for Badenoch. People praised her handling of the vote on Labour’s welfare “cuts” (that weren’t cuts), with Badenoch and Helen Whately – alongside her “super smart” adviser Merlin Platt-Higgins – agreeing on three conditions for any support, moves one LOTO source claims “played our political cards well” and “emboldened Labour rebels.”

She even won quiet praise from those most definitely not in her camp for her performance at the very PMQs that had been joked about at the MPs’ drinks.

It may be a year on from the election, but this week Badenoch told her shadow cabinet – while discussing plans for conference – that she wants to focus on the future, not the past.

One senior Tory source says they’re “gearing up for some eye-catching announcements” in Manchester, alongside a focused youth plan over the Saturday and Sunday of conference weekend “to give young people a reason to come up and take part.”

A shadow minister adds:

“We keep thinking about the traditional voters we lost last year, but remember our average voter age is 63. We’re going to lose a lot of them, and we need to get young on side.”

Badenoch’s appointment of Lord Mark McInnes to run CCHQ has also been well received. One Tory source remarked there are only three people who could do the job well, and two – Lynton Crosby and Isaac Levido – have already done it. The third is Lord McInnes.

“A year in and we’ve solidified our grounding internally within the party and in Parliament. Now we’re turning to the public,” one LOTO source says.

And, in a first, last night the party gained a council seat from Reform in a by-election in Robert Jenrick’s Newark patch (congratulations go to Keith Girling) – perhaps this could mark the start of the next stage in the fightback.

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