If Iran’s Khamenei Croaks, Who is the Successor? Will He Be a Jerk?

Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is facing the most precarious moment of his 35-year rule. Now 86, he has retreated to a fortified bunker amid Israel’s massive military assault, which has already killed several senior Revolutionary Guards commanders and left Tehran reeling. In this climate of uncertainty, the question of who will succeed him has taken on unprecedented urgency.

The Threats Driving the Succession Plan

The Israeli airstrikes that began in June have been more destructive than any attack on Iran since the Iran-Iraq War. At the same time, the United States has issued direct threats against Khamenei himself. President Trump publicly declared that American intelligence knows exactly where he is hiding, describing him as “an easy target.” With the risk of assassination higher than ever, Khamenei has accelerated secret preparations to ensure the Islamic Republic does not splinter if he is killed.

Officials say he has suspended all electronic communications to avoid detection and now issues orders through a single trusted aide. Senior clerics and military officials have been ordered underground. Even the internet inside Iran has been mostly cut off.

The Succession Process

According to Iran’s constitution, the Assembly of Experts—an elected body of 88 clerics—has the authority to name the next supreme leader. But in practice, the choice will likely be shaped by a combination of military power, religious legitimacy, and Khamenei’s own wishes.

While the selection usually takes months, insiders say contingency plans are in place for an emergency handover to signal continuity and prevent chaos.

The Leading Contenders

Based on reports from Iranian insiders and Western analysts, there are two main figures now considered frontrunners:

Mojtaba Khamenei

• Who he is: The 56-year-old son of the supreme leader, a mid-ranking cleric who teaches theology in Qom and wields significant influence behind the scenes.
• Political stance: His views are almost identical to his father’s: hardline, anti-Western, and fiercely protective of the Revolutionary Guards’ power.
• Strengths: Loyal to the system and deeply trusted by Iran’s security establishment.
• Weaknesses: The idea of hereditary succession is highly controversial in Iran, whose 1979 revolution overthrew a monarchy. Khamenei himself has opposed this in the past.

Hassan Khomeini

• Who he is: The 53-year-old grandson of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic.
• Political stance: Closer to the reformist camp, he supports easing social and political restrictions and improving ties with the West.
• Strengths: He has religious prestige and popular appeal, and some see him as a figure who could help the regime adapt to rising public dissatisfaction.
• Weaknesses: Hardliners have barred him from running for office in the past, viewing him as too moderate.

Other Possible Candidates

• Ayatollah Alireza Arafi: A member of the Assembly of Experts who remains in contention but is seen as less likely.
• A Less Prominent Cleric: Some analysts warn the Revolutionary Guards could back an unknown figure as a puppet leader who lacks the independent authority Khamenei consolidated over decades.

Several other prominent candidates once discussed as possible successors—like former President Ebrahim Raisi and former judiciary chief Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi—have died in recent years.

What Might Change if Khamenei Is Killed

If an Israeli or American strike were to kill Khamenei, the Islamic Republic could enter a period of instability not seen since the revolution. Some insiders believe Mojtaba would be the most immediate continuity choice to reassure the security establishment. But under pressure at home and abroad, senior clerics might favor Hassan Khomeini to present a more conciliatory face and avoid internal rebellion.

Whatever happens, it is unlikely that any successor will inherit the same level of personal authority Khamenei has maintained. As one analyst put it, “Whether the Islamic Republic survives or not, it will be a very different one.”

The stakes are as high as they have ever been. As the bombs fall and Khamenei hides in his bunker, Iran’s future is being decided behind closed doors.

NP Editor: The key here may be that the next ayatollah will not have as much power as Khamanei, and perhaps this will lead to a softening of the hard Islamic line, and a more pragmatic approach to international relations.

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