Will Iran conflict’s aftermath drive Israel, Saudi Arabia towards normalization?

BEIRUT — Now that the fog of missiles and strikes has cleared between Iran and Israel, under a US-Qatari mediated ceasefire, countries in the Gulf and Middle East are taking a breath and adjusting to what the new geopolitical reality may be. And that raises the question: With Iran seen as a more active, direct threat, will Saudi Arabia consider normalization of relations with Israel?

According to analysts who talked with Breaking Defense, that seems likely — but only if the fundamental issue of Gaza’s fate can be addressed in a satisfactory way.

At the end of his first term in 2020, President Donald Trump helped broker new relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco under the Abraham Accords. Notably, Saudi Arabia did not sign, and while there have been attempts to get the nation to agree, normalization agreements have taken a back seat since the Israel and Gaza conflict began in October 2023.

Israel and Iran traded blows for 12 days, with the US getting involved by striking Iran’s nuclear facilities. With Iran — a common adversary for many Gulf States — facing so many setbacks, some experts said this could implore Gulf nations like Saudi Arabia to revisit normalizing relationships with Israel.

“The recent escalation with Iran has left Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, anxious about Iranian retaliation on their territory, especially following Iranian strikes on the U.S. base in Qatar,” Allison Minor, director of the Atlantic Council’s N7 Research Institute told Breaking Defense. “This is contributing to the cautious approach Saudi Arabia has taken to normalization with Israel since the war in Gaza began.”

She added that if the current ceasefire with Iran holds, and the US successfully launches  a “more serious round of negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program, it could create a powerful step forward towards the kind of regional de-escalation that is necessary to pave the way for Saudi-Israel normalization and Middle East regional integration writ large.”

Kristian Alexander, a senior fellow at the United Arab Emirate-based Rabdan Security and Defence Institute, agreed with Minor, stating that Saudi Arabia views Iran as its primary regional rival and a significant security threat.

“This [the Israel and Iran conflict] could reinforce the strategic rationale for aligning with Israel and the US. The Abraham Accords were partly motivated by a shared concern over Iran’s destabilizing activities. If the US demonstrates a willingness to act decisively against Iranian aggression, it might make Saudi Arabia more confident in a US-backed regional security architecture that includes Israel,” Alexander told Breaking Defense.

The Trump administration in May toured the Middle East, and Trump was hopeful Saudi Arabia would normalize ties with Israel. He again shared that message last week.

“The president is certainly hopeful that more countries in the region will sign on to the Abraham Accords. Again, we want to see a long, withstanding, endurable peace in the Middle East. And that’s the way to do it,” said White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt on Thursday.

In order for that to happen, experts said, the conflict in Gaza needs to be resolved and Saudi Arabia needs to sign a defense pact with the US.

“In my view, the decisive factor in Riyadh’s decision is the Palestinian cause. Saudi Arabia has repeatedly stated that it will not normalize relations with Israel unless there is a credible path to an independent Palestinian state,” Elyazia AlHosani, researcher and deputy head of media and communications department at TRENDS advisory told Breaking Defense.

If Saudi Arabia decides to join the Abraham Accords, she said, “it would undoubtedly serve as a powerful incentive for other GCC countries, as well as other Arab and Islamic states, to follow suit. The Kingdom’s significant religious and political standing in the Sunni world gives its decisions considerable influence and resonance across both the Gulf and the wider Islamic region.”

Despite the recent conflict, Rachel Brandenburg, adjunct senior fellow of the Middle East Security Program at CNAS, said that “not much has changed” for Saudi Arabia in terms of normalization with Israel, due to “the cause of a Palestinian state or eventual two-state resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict” still being an issue.

Syria, Lebanon In Play?

Even before the conflict with Iran blew up, Syria and Lebanon were also looking at normalizing ties with Israel, though likely not before a ceasefire between Israel and Gaza.

“Remarkably, Syrian President al Shaara has said he would be willing to normalize relations with Israel at some point in the future, and the Lebanese government is trying to push back on Hezbollah influence. There certainly could be opportunities to begin taking baby steps toward normalization with Israel, but I expect there is a ways to go before either country could fully join the Abraham Accords,” Brandenburg told Breaking Defense.

US Special Envoy to Syria Thomas Barrack said in an interview with Al Jazeera Sunday that Israel and Syria are conducting quiet talks on several issues including border security between the two countries.

Marwa Maziad, an assistant professor of international relations at the Gildenhorn Institute for Israel Studies at University of Maryland said that normalization “is more likely in the case of Syria and Lebanon over the medium term, but only after a ceasefire in Gaza and depending on the outcome of the now-aborted—or at least postponed—conference on Palestinian statehood led by France and Saudi Arabia. In any case, such developments are likely to occur before any moves by Saudi Arabia toward normalization.”