The Real National Debt

This column is being written during the final throes of the One Big Beautiful Bill touted by President Donald J. Trump as the lynch pin for his domestic agenda. It is being done under the guise of a budget reconciliation so as to ensure that only a simple majority is required in the United States Senate and where partisanship has ensured that virtually nothing will get done under its rules requiring a two-thirds majority for moving substantive legislation – just another part of the fairy land in which our federal government exists*. One of the bones of contention is the degree to which passage of this bill will add to the national debt which as of January 1, 2025 stands at $36.2 Trillion. To put that in context I paraphrase a quote from one of the dumbest members of the United States Senate, former Sen. Max Baucus (D) from my home state of Montana:

“You spend a billion here and a billion there and pretty soon it adds of to real money.”

I doubt that it was an original observation by Mr. Baucus because I don’t believe that he ever had an original thought during his thirty-five years in the Senate. It was a frivolous comment but unfortunately reflected the lack of seriousness about the national debt then and now by past presidents and members of Congress took in the face of the mounting debt load. In fact, the lack of seriousness was highlighted a couple of years ago when Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez suggested that Congress should quit worrying about excessive spending and the increase in the national debt because we can just print more money. Which is precisely what they did during and after the so-called COVID pandemic. Which then resulted in a rapid increase in inflation with the resulting negative impact on those on the lower end of the income scale – and those on a fixed income. Only a combination or morons like Ms. Ocasio-Cortez, former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), Sen. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and the permanently stupid President Joe Biden (D) could have pulled that off and then looked around amazed at what happened.

Be that as it may, the Democrats and their allies in the mainstream media have accepted the talking points from the Democrat National Committee claiming that Mr. Trump’s bill will add trillions to the national debt over the next decade. That fact never bothered them when they were in the majority and voted for all of the excessive spending that accompanied Mr. Biden’s tenure. Mr. Trump acknowledges that the bill will initially add to the national debt but will quickly result in an economic surge that will result in more tax revenue and an overall reduction of the national debt. And given that is precisely what happened when Mr. Trump engineered a significant reduction in taxes, I’m prepared to accept this view over those progressive and liberals who have never learned how to make money – only who to spend it.

But we need to get serious about the America’s debt load because it is far in excess of the amount touted as “the national debt.” It is but a part of the total debt load facing American families today and into tomorrow. It can be divided into two categories – government debt and private debt.

Government Debt

• unfunded future liability for Social Security pensions and Medicare – $78.3 Trillion
• Unfunded future liability for Medicaid – $ Indeterminable
• Unfunded future liability for federal public employees pensions
  • Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund (CSRD) – $823.5 Billion
  • Federal Employees Retirement Service (FERS) – $201.5 Billion
• Unfunded future liability for state and local public employee pensions as of May of 2023 – $1.3 Trillion
• Unfunded future liability for state and local pubic employee healthcare – $530 Billion
• Future liability for state, local and public school incurred debt – $3.4 Trillion

Private Debt

• Total Student debt as of January 1, 2025 – $1,76 Trillion
• Total Credit Card debt as of January 1, 2025 – $1.182 Trillion
• Total Mortgage debt as of January 1, 2024 – $20.9 Trillion

I provide this information so as to put context for America’s growing debt problem. As you can see the amount of Private Debt incurred is almost $24 Trillion dollars. With the exception of student loan debt this is debt voluntarily incurred with the overwhelming amount related to mortgage debt which to a degree is interchangeable with rent and falls under the broad category of necessary expenditures, With credit card debt is represents deferred payments for current purchases – again made voluntarily. For many it is a substitute for the old “time payments’ while for others, including a huge number of retired and senior citizens it represents a payment consolidation method where everything is charged and the debt is paid in full at the end of the month. In both instance there is something of valued acquired as a result of the occurrence of the debt – temporary or elsewise.

Only the student debt is the exception. Unscrupulous universities have used the students’ easy access and deferred payments to induce students to pursue worthless degrees (e.g. gender studies, ethnic studies, fashion design, etc.) while incurring hundreds of thousands of dollars in debt which they can ill afford to repay, The proceeds from such loans are used to inflate salaries of teachers for minimal effort and to compensate losing politicians for their political connections. Race through the post-administration activities of the living past presidents who are paid handsomely for no good reason.

But they are all private debt.

In stark contrast there is Public Debt that, without including the cost of the military result in a staggering amount in addition to the National Debt – Over $84.5 Trillion not including the unfunded future liability of Medicaid. When added to the National Debt, it amounts to $120.7 Trillion.

So what is the solution. There isn’t a single solution but the varied solutions all require one, common thing. Holding politicians accountable. Accountable not only for identifying the problem – real or imagined. Accountable for the reasonableness of the solution. And accountable for the implementation. Today we do none of these. Wake up, get a job and participate.

As Mr. Trump removes illegal aliens there will be a huge number of jobs open up. It may not be glorious work but it is work and it will provide a living – and a sense of pride. As every father has said to his son – Get A Job and Move Out.

The post The Real National Debt first appeared on Oregon Catalyst.