Rep. Thomas Massie, Vocal Israel Critic, Trailing By Huge Margin in Latest GOP Primary Poll

Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) is facing an uphill battle to secure reelection, as new polling shows the Republican congressman trailing a Trump-backed challenger in a primary race that’s quickly becoming a referendum on his break with GOP orthodoxy. 

A recent Kaplan Strategies poll of likely Republican voters in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District found Massie pulling in just 19% support. That’s well behind his opponent, nurse and political newcomer Niki Lee Ethington, who led the poll with 31%. Half of those surveyed remained undecided. 

Another poll, conducted by Trump-aligned firm McLaughlin & Associates, showed an even larger gap: Ethington at 52%, Massie at just 23%.

The dramatic shift in voter sentiment comes as Massie has drawn criticism from conservatives over his increasingly vocal opposition to US military aid to Israel and his refusal to back several congressional resolutions expressing support for the country.

Massie was the lone Republican to vote against a bipartisan resolution condemning antisemitism on college campuses earlier this year. He has also opposed funding packages for Israel during its war against Hamas in Gaza and has used social media to cast doubt on Israel’s military tactics, actions that have put him at odds with most of his party.

During an appearance on the podcast of controversial political commentator Tucker Carlson, Massie criticized the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) — the foremost pro-Israel lobbying group in the US — accusing the organization of employing “AIPAC babysitters” to steer congressional votes.

In a recent post on X, formerly known as Twitter, Massie said, “Blind support for foreign governments, including Israel, has cost this country dearly. Congress must put America first.”

Massie has also suggested that Israel deliberately targets civilian infrastructure during its military campaigns, an unfounded accusation which enraged many supporters of the Jewish state.  

The congressman’s conduct has fueled attacks from pro-Israel conservatives and from former President Donald Trump, who has made Massie one of his top primary targets this cycle. Trump has labeled him a “disaster” and a “phony libertarian” and has publicly pledged to unseat him.

“Congressman Thomas Massie of Kentucky is not MAGA … Actually, MAGA doesn’t want him, doesn’t know him, and doesn’t respect him,” Trump said in a June 22 Truth Social post.

“Massie is weak, ineffective, and votes ‘NO’ on virtually everything … He is disrespectful to our great military — not even acknowledging their brilliance and bravery in yesterday’s attack, which was a total and complete WIN,” Trump wrote.

Massie, who has long positioned himself as a libertarian-leaning outlier in the Republican caucus, has previously endured primary challenges with little difficulty. But this year, the stakes appear different.

The White House has launched a super PAC, Kentucky MAGA, with plans to spend millions to boost Ethington or another Trump-endorsed alternative. Party insiders are also reportedly urging state lawmakers, including State Sen. Aaron Reed and Rep. Kimberly Moser, to consider entering the race.

Massie has dismissed the effort as a “D.C.-funded hit job” and vowed not to abandon his principles. He raised more than $120,000 in the 24 hours after Trump’s first attack, according to his campaign.

The Kentucky primary is scheduled for May 2026.

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