NY Mag: MAGA’s Civil War Isn’t Over

Iran’s army chief says he has ‘serious doubts’ regarding Israel’s commitment to ceasefire

There’s a polymarket on the Israelis resuming the war in July, with a 31% chance pic.twitter.com/OCsoNlndOL

— Iran Observer (@IranObserver0) June 30, 2025

Lindsey Graham: It is not fair 80 years after the holocaust to ask Israel to speak with Iran… pic.twitter.com/pqYRPUKAWF

— Glenn Diesen (@Glenn_Diesen) June 29, 2025

TRUMP AND NETANYAHU GAZA PEACE DEAL? Look closely. Sounds like ethnic cleansing to me. pic.twitter.com/duMWBDyGuD

— Sabby Sabs (@SabbySabs2) June 26, 2025

Polymarket currently has it at a 31% chance that Israel breaks the peacefire and resumes the war with Iran in July. Netanyahu is expected to turn his attention to Gaza and expanding the Abraham Accords. He is also coming here to celebrate his great victory over Iran with Trump.

New York Mag:

“As  a leftist in the Trump era, I have often sheepishly envied the unanimity of the MAGA movement. While Democrats (rightly!) wail about spineless, sycophantic Republicans who never stand up to the president, who will change their ideological priors to align with his whims, a small, shabby voice in my head sometimes says, “But how about that message discipline …” Surely there is something disturbing about a political party so loath to publicly criticize its leader’s decisions — no matter how stupid — but the little Leninist in me cannot help but admire the ruthless self-control of the MAGA cadre. …

The split fell along existing factional lines, dividing the more radical, isolationist, and online right from the older, more institutional, and neoconservative flank of the party. On one side were MAGA celebrities such as Charlie Kirk, Jack Posobiec, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Tucker Carlson, and Steve Bannon, who warned that U.S. involvement — especially in a protracted war — would betray the base. (“Trump smartly ran against starting new wars,” Posobiec tweeted. “This is what the swing states voted for.”) On the other side were hawks: U.S. senators Ted Cruz and Lindsey Graham, Fox News personality Mark Levin, and Mark Dubowitz of the neocon Foundation for Defense of Democracies, all of whom had long nursed dreams of regime change in Iran. (As Graham put it on June 17: “Wouldn’t the world be better off if the Ayatollahs went away and were replaced with something better?”) …

For the time being, the open war within the MAGA coalition is subsiding. (It’s not quite a cease-fire, but a lowering of temperatures.) But almost everyone I spoke to in recent days agreed the contradictions revealed by the conflict remain unresolved. A younger cohort of MAGA activists, many of whom got jobs in the lower levels of the administration, have begun to seriously doubt the instinctual deference to Israeli prerogatives that reigns in official Washington. They speak openly of the existence of an “Israel lobby” perverting American priorities, using language once only found in leftist magazines and Noam Chomsky books. They perceive a silent caveat to America First — i.e., “Israel Firster” — that can’t be reconciled with foreign-policy realism or U.S. interests. Several young right-wingers pointed me to a clip, which circulated on X after the Iran strikes, of State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce referring to the U.S. as “the greatest country on Earth, next to Israel.”

While they do not express it with the same anguish as their liberal peers, at least some junior MAGA staffers have been repelled by the U.S.-backed massacre of Palestinians in Gaza. As one young Republican operative pointed out, fewer and fewer GOP staffers are coming up through the Evangelical movement, where Christian Zionism is inculcated; rather, those who remain religious tend to attend Catholic mass or some high-church denomination, where the sermons are very unlikely to invoke any biblical obligation to defend Israel. …”

Gaza appears to be the next disaster in the making.

The “fundamental principles” of the “deal” that Trump is calling for on Truth Social involve “multiple nations globally will accept numerous Gaza inhabitants seeking emigration.” The fanatical settlers who are Netanyahu’s base have long called for expelling Palestinians to European countries like Ireland. Trump has also repeatedly said that Gaza is uninhabitable and the population will be relocated.