Trump is reshaping the Middle East for the better

Assuming that the 14 missiles that Iran fired at the American Al Udeid military base in Qatar were the sum total of their “retaliation” – and that Iran will maintain a ceasefire – we can see just how broken Iran is, and how fearful the leaders are of the United States.

Iran did not retaliate. They launched a few missiles as a propaganda event for local consumption. The folks in Tehran alerted both President Trump and Qatar in advance of the attack. That meant 13 of the missiles were shot down by Qatar and the United States. One is reported to have landed in a remote location. None of the missiles were intended to damage American assets or kill Americans. The Supreme Leader – assuming he is still in charge – understood that a serious attack on America would have resulted in a blitzkrieg, including a possible attack on Iran’s political leadership.

Trump has said that his goal is a real peace agreement. Comparatively, however, a ceasefire is a lot easier than a peace agreement. The first and foremost problem is the fact that the Iranian leadership cannot be trusted … period. Despite the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement, Iran never gave up its nuclear ambitions. Wendy Sherman, one of the negotiators of the JCPOA agreement, said that at the time of the agreement, they were totally unaware of the Fordow nuclear facility.  That shows how bad the monitoring was.

A peace agreement would require Iran to abandon its official 46-year primary goal – the destruction and elimination of the Jewish state. Their “death to Israel” mantra goes beyond the elimination of the Jewish state. Their avowed, official and stated policy is the genocidal extermination of Jews. That belief is what made possible the years of Iran’s coordinated, combined terrorist attacks on Israel and the savage slaughtering of innocent civilian men, women, and children in an orgy of bloodshed on October 7, 2023.

Another major obstacle to a permanent peace agreement are the conditions. While it may be referred to as an “agreement,” it is about negotiating the terms of surrender. Iran has been defeated. It must either agree to talk terms for ending the conflict or face more of its military being crushed and the nation’s infrastructure further damaged. The goal is to render Iran unable to ever produce a nuclear weapon – including easy-to-produce dirty bombs – and never to be able to enrich uranium to the 90 percent weapons-grade level.

Iran has several benefits in working out an eventual peace agreement. It would end future military actions. Sanctions would be removed. It would cease to be a pariah among the world of nations – including Arab nations. The people of Iran would enjoy peace and prosperity – and mobility. A meaningful peace agreement would give the regime in Tehran the only chance it has to survive – although I wouldn’t bet on it in the long run.

Any new agreement will not be like the Obama administration’s JCPOA agreement in 2015. Unfortunately, that agreement allowed Iran to possess and enrich uranium – and failed in the essential policy to “trust but verify.” In the erroneous belief that the United States had achieved a meaningful goal, the Tehran regime was allowed to continue building and deploying its terrorist network. The Obama administration even released billions of dollars to Iran – including millions of dollars in cash shipped on pallets in a private plane.

Any peace agreement will include the total elimination of Iran’s nuclear program, even for commercial use. That is important because any level of uranium enrichment still enables Iran to produce so-called “dirty bombs.”

A complete ban would be easier to monitor because it would eliminate the need for uranium, centrifuges, etc. Many nations meet their energy needs without nuclear power. Uranium requirements – such as for medical equipment – could be imported and monitored.

If Iran retains the means to enrich uranium, effective monitoring is an essential provision. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will have to be provided 100 percent access to any location at its discretion. The Agency was thwarted several times in the past – despite the JCPOA agreement.

Another provision is likely to be the surrender of Iran’s current stock of enriched uranium, which has been secreted away if not destroyed in the bombing. Finding an acceptable recipient will not be easy. For many reasons, it is not likely to be Israel or the United States.

Then there is the issue of terrorism. Eliminating Iran’s ability to create nuclear weapons does not address its role as the world’s number one state sponsor of terrorism. Iran will be required to cease funding proxy terrorist groups.

Iran should be required to disband the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the quasi-independent paramilitary terrorist organization. That was the organization headed by Major General Qasem Soleimani, whom Trump killed during his previous term.

In many ways, de-fanging Iran represents the last of the major nations sponsoring or supporting terrorism. Though the post-war period in Iraq was mishandled by President Bush, the situation in Iraq is measurably better today than during the brutal reign of Saddam Hussein. While Iraq has domestic terrorist groups – including the remnants of ISIS – they are not funded by the government and have had diminishing influence. The United States maintains two major military bases and more than 2,500 soldiers in Iraq.

At one time, Libya, under Muammar Gaddafi, was the chief state sponsor of terrorism – including the attack on the Jewish village at the 1972 Munich Olympics and the downing of Pan Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland. That ended when President Reagan bombed the presidential palace in Tripoli in 1986. Gaddafi was later deposed and killed in 2011.

Another supporter of terrorism against Israel was Russian ally Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. He was deposed in a civil uprising in 2024. The new government – headed by former leaders of al-Qaeda – has signaled its interest in establishing more positive ties to Israel and the Western world. The new regime is very anti-Russian. Thanks to Israel, the most powerful terrorist organizations in the Middle East – Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis – have been diminished or destroyed.

In terms of the ceasefire – and the negotiations to follow – Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu are giving Iran an offer they cannot refuse. One can only hope that Trump and Netanyahu will be tough in their demands. In a very real sense, it should be a fait accompli.

If Iran does not accept the harsh terms – or if their strategy is to delay – the military option should be quickly pursued. Another round of pounding by Israel – and perhaps the United States — would likely result in regime change.

Trump is craftily guiding the Middle East to a better future.  There may be more bumps in the road, but the direction and the momentum are in Trump’s and America’s favor.

So, there ‘tis.

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